'DNA' special: 60+ seats will set stage for Rahul Gandhi in 2014

Rahul Gandhi may have staked it all in Uttar Pradesh (UP), but he won’t be able to take the credit for a satisfactory Congress performance unless the grand old party is able to corner a minimum of 60 seats. And 60 seats is an uphill task even if the Congress is upbeat about an impressive showing. There are 403 assembly seats in UP.

At the Mall Avenue office of the UP Congress in Lucknow, party general secretary Digvijay Singh is willing to wager that the Congress will surpass the formidable figure of 100. But with both the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) retaining their vaunted position as principal contenders, that magic number might be difficult to attain.

Sixty seats can be safely accepted as the cut-off point, distinguishing between a good and bad Congress performance. After all, though the party had performed disastrously in 2007 winning only 22 assembly seats, it improved its situation sharply in 2009 general elections, edging past its rivals in 22 parliamentary constituencies and in the process, acquiring a healthy lead in 95 assembly segments.

Nobody is expecting the Congress to repeat its miraculous achievement of 2009. Parliamentary polls have their own logic and dynamics.

It is easier to register thunderous victories in a larger number of assembly segments because the voter is confronted with a different set of issues which are not that localised or fragmented. Even the redoubtable candidates are more effective in swaying the electorate.

The Congress leadership admits that the 2009 verdict largely went in its favour because powerful nominees pulled their weight and did not require the party’s organisational backing. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s blunder in effecting a coalition with the Babri Masjid ‘villain’, Kalyan Singh, also nudged the Muslim voters towards the Congress. History was made that year with the Congress going past the BSP tally in UP.

In the past five years, despite Rahul’s innumerable trips to the interiors of UP, the Congress is yet to build a proper organisation that can garner votes. Even Digvijay admitted to this major shortcoming in a conversation with this correspondent.

The Congress pins its hope on the individual organising ability of its nominees. The party does not have much of an infrastructure to support them with manpower or a grassroots network.

Also, the SP hasn’t goofed up the way it did three years ago. The party is courting the Muslims with rare ardour.

The Muslims may not choose to go with the Congress en bloc as they had done in some pockets in 2009. That explains why a number of assembly seats which were able to arrange a public address by Rahul have a sizeable Muslim population. In each of these rallies, Rahul made a direct appeal to the Muslims insisting that nobody, but the Congress would take care of their daily necessities.

Given the constraints, the Congress is making a desperate effort to emerge as a major player in UP politics. But it is hardly likely that it will be able to dislodge either the SP or BSP from the top two positions this time. What is positive for the party is that it is adding to its capabilities and its potential with every passing poll. Possibly, it will be ready to outstrip all its rivals in the 2014 general elections.

Under the circumstances, getting a minimum of 60 seats is the first target for the Congress. If its final tally falls below that number, Rahul will have to take responsibility. But for every seat won beyond the optimum figure of 60, the credit should go to him. After all, it is his hard work that has lent the Congress a sense of purpose and direction.