Diseases pose new risks in Pakistan flood crisis

Disease outbreaks pose grave new risks to victims of Pakistan's worst floods in decades, aid agencies said on Friday, potentially hindering already complicated relief efforts as desperation grows.

The floods, triggered by torrential monsoon downpours, have engulfed Pakistan's Indus river basin, killing more than 1,600 people, forcing two million from their homes and disrupting the lives of about 14 million people, or 8% of the population.

A health crisis would tax aid agencies already facing huge logistical challenges.

The United Nations is increasingly worried about water-borne diseases. There have been 36,000 suspected cases of potentially fatal acute watery diarrhoea reported so far.

"This is a growing concern. Therefore we are responding with all kinds of preventative as well as curative medication... for outbreaks," said Maurizio Giuliano, the UN humanitarian operation spokesperson said.

Floods have roared down from the northwest to Punjab province to southern Sindh. The United Nations appealed for $459 million in emergency aid and warned of a new wave of deaths if help didn't arrive soon.

UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon is expected to visit Pakistan over the weekend to discuss the crisis with Pakistani leaders.

Pakistan's overwhelmed government has been on the defensive after its perceived lacklustre response to one of the worst catastrophes in the country's history.

The military, which has ruled US ally Pakistan for more than half of its history, swung into action.

President Asif Ali Zardari has just started what appears to be damage control by visiting flood victims after drawing heavy criticism for leaving for meetings with European leaders as the disaster unfolded, and not cutting his trip short.

Zardari said he had worked to secure international aid for the flood victims during his trip.

Despite the state's deepening unpopularity after its handling of the floods, analysts rule out a military grab for power, or the government's downfall.

"Children are dying now as we speak because of lack of access to clean drinking water," said Pascal Cuttat, International Committee of the Red Cross Head of Delegation in Islamabad.

In Punjab, Pakistan's bread basket, crowds of people pushed and scratched each other competing for relief supplies. The elderly took food from children. A man grabbed sugar from a burst bag that had fallen on the ground and poured into in his mouth.                                                                                    

Villages have been swallowed up. Bridges have collapsed. Some people only have a patch of land to stand on. All they see is water.

Pakistanis are at the mercy of the elements. Fresh downpours could bring more destruction and the economic fallout could last years.

The International Monetary Fund has warned of major economic harm and the finance ministry said the country would miss this year's 4.5% gross domestic product growth target though it was not clear by how much.

World Bank president Robert Zoellick said on a visit to Latvia that the floods were likely to have destroyed crops worth around $1 billion. "All of us will have to pitch in to help," he told a news conference.

Wheat, cotton and sugar crops have all suffered damage. Agriculture is a mainstay of the economy.

"On the downside, crops could have suffered damage and food inflation will soar. There may be severe shortages too and riots could well break out," said independent economist Meekal Ahmed.

He predicted the fiscal deficit would come under strain and amount to about 8% of GDP -- twice this year's target.

Prices for food still available in markets are soaring.

"Where will I get money from? Rob a bank? Carry out an armed robbery?" grumbled 55-year-old flood survivor Mehr Din.

Cholera would create another major crisis. Some officials say there are indications that it may have already broken out.

"Disasters such as this one, which largely affect the poor and defenceless, tend to be forgotten soon by the wealthy classes, and the downtrodden classes are rarely the ones that lead unrest," said Najam Sethi, editor of Friday Times.

Spontaneous protests are not common but political parties can whip up emotions and bring large numbers to the streets.

Aid groups say it's still to early to even think about recovery. Giuliano said the floods had affected about one third of Pakistan.

"It doesn't mean it's under water. It's a huge area. It's an area bigger than some European countries," he said.