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ShareNew Delhi: With winter setting in most parts of India, there is apprehension it could trigger a second wave of H1N1. Epidemiologists believe swine flu cases will peak between November-January, winter temperatures being ideal for breeding influenza viruses. Health experts say the number can touch lakhs in two months.
What is worrying the government most is that most states are still not equipped to handle the second wave. "H1N1 influenza needs continuous surveillance. Increasing influenza activity is seen in the southern states, especially Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
About 5,010 confirmed cases were reported in the four southern states alone, with 195 deaths taking place. Karnataka alone accounts for 118 deaths so far. Therefore, all the states should continue to be very vigilant and ensure community surveillance to detect clusters of the illness. They should also ensure functioning of adequate number of screening centres and treatment facilities," health minister Ghulam Nabi Azad said.
The minister was in Chennai on Thursday to review the preparedness of southern states.
According to Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) chief VM Katoch, the flu will start retreating only after it spreads among at least 50-60% of the population.
"By then, the population would gave gained herd immunity. Already we are getting cases where many family members of an H1N1-infected person are mere carriers of the virus and are not unwell. Among them, H1N1 is in mildest form, which is why they are asymptomatic," Katoch said.
World Health Organisation (WHO) officials said that anti-viral medicines can prevent the onset of severe disease from H1N1 and should be given to pregnant women, infants, young children and people with other underlying medical problems.
Among the high-risk groups, anti-virals need to be administered early in order to check the ailment from becoming severe. India's first set of swine flu vaccines is expected to reach the market by February-March.
So far this year there have been 15,016 positive cases of swine flu and 514 deaths.
Delhi (3,702), Maharashtra (3,778), Tamil Nadu (1,667), Karnataka (1,518), and Kerala (1,140) lead the table with highest number of infections while the most deaths have occurred in Maharashtra (210) and Karnataka (118). The infection has even reached far-flung areas like Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Nagaland.
