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Bihar polls: Big win for NDA alliance, latest survey predicts

The latest Zee-JantaKaMood survey predicts NDA to win 162 seats while ‘Grand Alliance’ will get only 51 seats.

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The NDA alliance has got a major boost ahead of the first phase of assembly elections in Bihar to be held on October 12. According to the latest pre-poll survey done by Zee News and survey agency JantaKaMood, the BJP-led alliance is going to win thumping majority in Bihar with 162 seats in its bag, done three-day before the first phase of elections. The poll finds NDA alliance to be the frontrunner with 162 seats. Nitish Kumar and Lalu led ‘Grand Alliance’ inching towards all time lowest with just 51 seats out of total 243 seats in Bihar. According to the survey, there are 30 seats where there is a close contest, meaning any party can win from these seats.
 
In the overall percentage share of votes in the state, the NDA alliance will get 54.8 percent. The ‘Grand Alliance’ is likely to garner 40.2 percent while others will get 6 percent of voting share.
This is the third survey in less than a month and all of them have predicted big-win for NDA alliance.
 
The NDA alliance has edge over its rival on all caste combinations except Yadav where the ‘Grand Alliance’ is likely to get more votes. Among all caste combinations, the new poll finds 65 percent of Forward Caste voting going in favour of NDA alliance. It has positive impressions on Dalit and Mahadalit where NDA is likely to garner 57 percent of votes but ‘Grand Alliance’ will get 36 percent only.
In overall Other Backward Caste (OBC) voters, 55 percent view NDA alliance favourably and only 40 percent roots for ‘Grand Alliance’. But among Yadav voters, ‘Grand Alliance’ has an edge with 50 percent while NDA alliance is likely to get 45 percent.
 
The NDA alliance has continued to fade with Muslim voters favouring ‘Grand Alliance’. Overall, only 35 percent Muslim respondents in Bihar are rooting for NDA, while ‘Grand Alliance’ likely to garner 58 percent.
In Bihar CM’s home district - Nalanda, the NDA has gained considerably with 54 percent of votes while 40 percent favouring ‘Grand Alliance’. There are seven assembly seats in Nalanda district where NDA alliance bagging five seats. On two seats, there is close fight means it can go to any party. 
 
The survey was conducted on all 243 assembly seats with a very big sample size conducted on October 5 to 8. A total of 54,411 respondents out of 10 lakh people were approached on phone by survey agency JantaKaMood, a survey start-up by IITians with high end analytics and technology at its core. The margin of error is 1.6 percent and confidence level is 99 percent meaning that consistency is very high.

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