Average of all exit polls predict comfortable majority for BJP.
Assam was always a high-stake election for the BJP. In its goal to achieve a Congress-mukt-Bharat, Assam was another frontier where the 15-year-long reign of Tarun Gogoi was challenged by BJP, buoyant by their admirable performance in the Lok Sabha election.
Taking lessons from the Delhi and Bihar drubbing, BJP made a course correction by projecting a CM in Sarbananda Sonowal and also showed political prudence in tying up with AGP, which though a fading force retains a certain amount of political capital.
And if exit polls are to be believed, Amit Shah may have got this round absolutely right. Almost every exit poll sans one predicts a clear sweep for BJP and virtual decimation for the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress. In the final analysis, not aligning with AIUDF may have cost Congress dear.
Many in the political circle believe Assam is not a open-and-shut case and there may be chance for considerable political manoeuvring if the vote shares are a bit closer than what is predicted. A lot of political pundits believe there may have been a concentration of minority votes in favour of AIUDF to stop BJP from coming to power.
If such a phenomenon had indeed happened, Assam may throw up a classic hung assembly and Badaruddin Ajmal's AIUDF can become the kingmaker as indicated by the C-Voter survey. But for now, Sarbananda Sonowal will have a bright smile at his face hoping that the exit polls come true and BJP is able to win its first-ever mandate in Assam.
Here's how the exit polls stack up:
| Agency |
BJP+ |
Congress |
AIUDF |
Others |
| Nielson |
81 |
33 |
10 |
2 |
| Axis- My India |
79-93 |
26-33 |
6-10 |
1-4 |
| Chanakya |
90 |
27 |
9 |
0 |
| C-Voter |
57 |
41 |
18 |
10 |
| India TV |
53-61 |
37-45 |
14-22 |
6-14 |
| Average of all polls |
74 |
34 |
13 |
5 |
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