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Oscars 2016: Prediction for Best Actress

Two Joys in this category. One will win and one shouldn't be here.

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We are now moving towards categories the whole world is actually interested in. The Best Supporting Actress trophy is the one every female actor covets no matter how indie or commercial they are.

This year it has one of the tightest competition, if you take out Jennifer Lawrence. Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence have been nominated and have won in recent years. Saoirse Ronan returns after a gap of 8 years. Surprisingly, this is Charlotte Rampling's first nomination!

All the major awards of the season have unanimously picked Brie Larson as the winner in this category. But the Oscars are notorious for being unpredictable exactly where you think they have no way of surprising you. Hence the term snubs!

Let's take a look at the nominees.

Cate Blanchett as Carol Aird, Carol

Blanchett is a veteran of the category now. This is her seventh nomination. She previously won for Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine in 2013.

Blanchett's Carol is a strong-minded woman. She understands her her sexuality and, in a perfectly practical manner, wants to live life her own way by getting a divorce. She is also fascinated by Therese and watches this young woman come into her own. Her confident and balanced nature comes into play when you see her leave Therese to do whatever it takes to get custody of her daughter. We also see her falter for the first time then. The way Blanchett breaks down (with utter sophistication, dignity) is a treat to watch.

Brie Larson as Joy "Ma" Newsome, Room

Worrying about her child while in captivity and thinking of ways to get him out of the hell she has been subjected to is the story of every other mama bear. Larson's "Ma" starts to hit you in the gut when she is finally out in the world and has no idea how to live out of captivity with her son.

The reason Larson is the frontrunner is because you cannot separate her from her character in those 118 minutes. She is protecting her cub. Teaching him ways to deal with things and  beings he has never seen other than on TV. But she is tired too, doing it all alone. Watching her son cling to her. Seeing her father look at her son as a symbol of her captor. 

Larson is flawless in portraying the flaws of a young woman trying to get a normal life with her son outside of the "Room". This is her first nomination. 

Jennifer Lawrence as Joy Mangano, Joy 

I love Jennifer Lawrence. She is an amazing actor. She has one win and two Academy nominations in her resume. She has quickly become America's Sweetheart. But her nomination for Joy in this category is not deserved. The movie feels like an ode to Jennifer Lawrence. The camera loves her. She is the only reason one can watch the movie. The climax scene when Joy Mangano gets her patent back is one of the most powerful scenes in the movie. Maybe this is the reason she is nominated. But I am still not convinced.

Charlize Theron could have been a better contender in this category.

Lawrence's Golden Globe win came to her because the categories were divided by genres and they thought Joy was a comedy. So if she wins at the Oscars, it'll be the biggest shock of the day.

Charlotte Rampling as Kate Mercer,  45 Years

You have to watch 45 Years until the very last frame to understand why Rampling is in the race. 

Rampling's portrayal of Kate Mercer is heartbreaking. We see her break down frame by frame. She still hangs on with the false assurance that her husband still loves her and that she is not the compromise, not the second best he could find. Come climax scene, at the anniversary party speech we see her collapse. There is no noise. But you can feel the thunder of a broken heart. Simply marvellous. 

Rampling could be the dark horse of the race.

Saoirse Ronan as Eilis Lacey, Brooklyn 

Saoirse Ronan plays Eilis a quiet, young girl who migrates from Ireland to America in the early 20th century, finds a job, gets secretly married and goes back to visit her homeland. On her return to Ireland, she is forced to face her conflicting feelings for a place that was once her home and another that she has made a home in by herself.

It's a story of a spirit that wants to break free and write her own destiny. Ronan is head to head with Larson in this category. This is her second nomination after being nominated in Best Supporting Actress category for Atonement in 2007.

Who will win - Brie Larson for Room

Winner Last Year - Julianne Moore for Still Alice

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