DNA Edit: The diamond ring

Optics go a long way in steering the course of a political party. Going into the Uttar Pradesh polls, the BJP was riding high on the perception that demonetization was indeed drastically reducing the level of corruption in the country and curbing terrorism funding at its very root.

The enthusiasm was evidenced by the Consumer Confidence Survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India. As per the December 2016 survey, a formidable 66 per cent of the people felt that economic conditions would improve with the demonetization exercise kicking in.

The survey captures the confidence that the layman placed in the Modi government. It was on the back of this trust that the BJP succeeded in capturing the state of UP with a majority that has rarely been seen before. However, this fervour is not evident now and this should rightly send alarm bells ringing within the BJP headquarters. As per the November 2017 survey, only 45.5 per cent believe that the prevailing economic conditions will see an improvement in the coming year. This pessimism is misplaced.

A number of market experts and economists are now suggesting that the worst is over for the economy. Further, the recent spike of 6.3 per cent in the GDP growth rate shows that the economy has started picking up, and efficiently so. However, politics is not so much about hard, cold economic statistics as much as it is about perceptions.

One cannot assure the layman with fiscal scholarship, Economic indicators mean little to him. Clearly, the government has been remiss in spreading the word about the turning tide of the economy. The disruption that ensued in the aftermath of demonetization and the GST could, if left unchecked, change the public discourse against the government.

Going into the Gujarat polls, this does not bode well for BJP. The party, as it is, is facing an anti-incumbency factor of 22-years. Compounding the situation further is the fatigue that has set in with the voter and the rise of younger leaders with their dedicated vote banks.

Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakore will all be chipping away at the large monolithic vote bank of the BJP, and the party will do well to devise a strategy to counter their clout and reassert its presence in the communities they represent. Even Congress President Rahul Gandhi has virtually resurrected himself, his rallies drawing a higher number of crowds across Gujarat, and his tweets seeing more traction than ever before.

Other regional party leaders have also come out publicly in his support and have showered him with unqualified praise. The BJP top brass must heed these messages coming from ground zero, and set itself on a course correction. First and foremost on its priority list should be winning over the traders and merchants community across India.

The compliance burden thrust on this community in the wake of the GST must be reduced. There should also be a visible pull back on the rising levels of inspector-raj across industry domains. The BJP cannot afford to alienate the baniya community — an erstwhile traditional supporter that may now be looking for other options.