Nitish Kumar back in NDA: Opposition can kiss their 2019 dreams goodbye

In a bloodless change of power equations in Patna, Nitish Kumar ditched his friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Lalu Prasad Yadav and Congress to form government with BJP in Bihar. 

On Wednesday evening, after sudden conscience pangs and series of well-coordinated meetings and tweets, the two parties which fought bitterly in the run-up to 2015 Assembly polls suddenly decided to let bygones be bygones and joined hands with each other. While Rahul Gandhi may claim that they were aware of the plan from three months back, the initial reaction of RJD and Congress gave away the truth, that they were completely taken aback and checkmated in this game of thrones. While Bihar looks to be a sealed deal for now, unless RJD manage to wean away a sizeable number of JD(U) MLAs, the reverberations of the political earthquake in Patna is likely to be felt across the country.

Riding on a euphoric win in 2014, the BJP-led by Amit Shah and Narendra Modi have had a trailblazing run in electoral politics in the last three years. It has faced losses in only three major states where it is a prominent player - Delhi, Bihar and Punjab. In Delhi, the Kejriwal government is currently facing heat from multiple front courtesy the central government and many agencies it directly controls. AAP’s woes have undoubtedly been aided by its self-goals. But fact is Kejriwal who got a massive mandate from the voters has been cut down to size. Bihar was a humiliating defeat for Modi as he had invested a lot of goodwill to get his party over the line there. After the Assembly election win, many believed that Nitish Kumar could become the focal point of Opposition consolidation throughout the country.

Known for his clean image, Niitsh was touted as the potential face of the Mahagathbandhan. However, with BJP winning in key battleground states including Uttar Pradesh, the wily politician clearly managed to read the tea leaves. Nitish has jumped ship one-and-a-half years before the next general election, so that he remains politically relevant post 2019. But where does it leave other opposition parties and their hopes of putting up a credible fight in the next polls?

Much of the equation was dependent on the Hindi heart belt of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where BJP+ won 104 of the 120 seats in 2014. Opposition was hoping that BJP’s tally would significantly deplete in these two states. The saffron party has already virtually maximized its winning potential in strongholds like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh.

In these states, the party is also facing local level anti-incumbency. BJP almost surely will shed some seats in these states in the next election. However, it may not be enough to stop NDA from getting a majority. Hence UP and Bihar was key to opposition’s calculation in the 2019 abacus. Now with Bihar done and dusted, NDA can hope for a clean sweep in 2019. In UP, with a tough administrator like Yogi Adityanath in helm, the party will look to carry the momentum of this year’s poll triumph to general election. With elevation of Dalit leader Kovind from UP as President of the country, and PM himself coming down hard on the gau rakshaks, it hopes to further consolidate the Hindu vote, a sure formula to win in UP.

The opposition is looking to forge a BSP-SP-Congress alliance in UP to prevent a saffron sweep. But as evident from the Presidential polls, BJP is already chipping away at this budding alliance by cosying up with Mulayam Singh Yadav. The party has used the Yadav pari-war to further weaken the opposition in the state. Any future alliance in UP without the blessings of Mulayam and his close associates will be half-baked and unlikely to be effective. Additionally, in eastern UP, the presence of Nitish Kumar belonging to the Kurmi caste will further concentrate non-Yadav OBC votes for BJP. In Western UP, the stark communal polarization is likely to neutralize the effect of any grand-alliance.

Down south, BJP seems to be a key interlocutor in the ongoing AIADMK factional fight. Whatever be the final result of the power struggle, BJP is likely to get AIADMK on its side come 2019. In Andhra, the party has developed a good rapport with Chandrababu Naidu, even though some rancour exists regarding the granting of special package. In Telangana, while the state BJP is fighting tooth and nail with TRS, the central leadership has maintained a cordial relationship with YSR. As evident during the Presidential election, TRS is willing to issue support NDA as and when it finds that politically suitable.

In North-East where BJP has been traditionally weak, Amit Shah has deployed his trusted lieutenant Himanta Biswa Sharma to win states, one at a time. The party expects to win majority of the 25 LS seats from North East IN 2019. BJP President is also investing lot of effort to increase party’s footprints in key states of Bengal, Odisha and Kerala. Results have already started to show in Odisha and Bengal may become one of the last fortresses the saffron brigade will partially breach in the next few years. So, in short, BJP is looking for new hunting grounds while consolidating support in its own backyard and plugging the holes where the party dropped the ball in past.
The 17-party opposition on the other hand looks clueless, tactically and ideologically at this moment. The parties don’t have any strategy to wean away the fence sitters or keep the existing players in their side. What incentive can the opposition offer a TRS or AIADMK to join the opposition wing. Can it stop a JDS from siding with BJP, if Karnataka changes hand in 2018?

 All these questions are up in air, and the anti- NDA parties are scrambling for answers. Only the bogey of communalism and constantly chanting that ‘idea of India’ is under danger is not good enough to win votes in today’s day and age. Not that there is a lack of issues to attack the Modi govt. The manufacturing sector is facing a crisis; job creation is far below that were promised, traders reeling from double blow of GST and demonetization, cow vigilantes are running amok. But the opposition, primarily due to lack of effective leadership, hasn’t managed to form any strong narrative against the government. The ‘Suit Boot ka Sarkar’ jibe managed to ruffle some feathers, but Modi did amends by backtracking on the Land Acquisition Bill. From then, it has been one-way traffic all the way.

But greatest takeaway for NDA’s political foes and the undecided parties is that scrutiny from investigative agencies will only increase in the coming days. Mamata Banerjee is already facing the heat, although she remains the undisputed ruler of Bengal. But other parties may not be immune to such intense probe. It may make more sense to jump the ship and join the tide rather than swim against it and face political oblivion. Like the Third Front was a non-starter for the last two decades rife with self-contradiction and power squabbles, a united opposition may remain a pipe dream in near future. With Nitish’s inclusion, NDA has virtually crushed the soul of Opposition, sapped it of all the hopes. Only some magic potion can rejuvenate them.