Farmers rely on weather guru, not the Met

Armed with a clay pot containing grains, seeds and water, Ramdas Maharaj draws on an old family tradition to predict the arrival and intensity of rains in Buldana district in state

BHENDWAL, BULDANA: He calls himself an “interpreter of nature’s moods”. Although Ramdas Wagh, 72, is illiterate, for 50 years he has been doing mathematical calculations to predict the rains. Unlike other forecasters, he uses no instruments. His skill has earned this poor marginal farmer the affectionate title of ‘Maharaj’ in his village of Bhendwal, 40 km from Khamgaon in Buldana district. Hundreds of farmers take his word on the rains.

Every year on Akshay Tritiya and Gudi Padwa, Wagh reads out his forecast to a big gathering of farmers in a field in his village. He starts by fasting the night before, then sitting inside a large egg-shaped pit that he digs to lay down clay utensils, grains and oilseeds that he uses for his calculations.

To the urban eye, it may look like black magic, but the frail Wagh says it is a proven skill passed down in his family for generations. “My forefather Chandrabhan Maharaj started this tradition about 300 years ago, and I learnt the art of forecasting from my father.”

Wagh says he observes changes in a specially-made clay pot filled with ghee, water, some grains, and oilseeds kept in an open field overnight. This ritual is locally called ‘ghat mandani’.

Interestingly, Wagh can apparently tell the temperature just by closing his eyes and feeling the heat on his face. “It is 41.8 degrees now,” he says, standing in the sun. His guess is corroborated by a thermometer.

“It’s an ancient wisdom which has no scientific format, which is why people label it superstition,” says Phunjaji, a local farmer. “Experience shows that the forecast has generally been accurate and helpful to farmers.” Adds Wagh’s nephew Arun, who is also learning forecasting, “You may laugh at it, but nature - the soil, winds, birds - has its own language”.

“The official met forecast is not specific to our area, but this one is,” says Bhika Arjun Wagh, another villager. Another reason for the farmers to use this information is that many of them lack access to the official information.

For 2008, Wagah predicts a good but delayed monsoon, and advises farmers to wait till the middle of July to sow. He says some parts of Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh will get incessant rain, but it’ll be a very good crop year for oilseeds, wheat, paddy, cereals and pulses. “We decide when and what to sow only after Akshay Tritiya forecasts by Wagh,” says farmer Kashinath Patil, who maintains a register of Wagh’s monsoon and crop predictions since neither the elderly farmer nor his son can read or write.

Another local forecaster, 70-year-old Vasantbhai Sangani who is a cloth merchant in Khamgaon, says, “It’s a science to observe the changes in nature”. Sangani observes the sky every night and monitors temperature changes to calculate when the rains will arrive. Several local farmers consult him before sowing.

Rainfall predictions have always been crucial for rural India, and people like Wagh and Sangani are among hundreds of grassroots forecasters who draw upon their traditional knowledge to help local farmers.

The Yogiraj Ved Vignan Ashram in Kasarwadi village in Solapur district has commissioned a five-year Project Parjanya to evolve a rainfall prediction model that draws from both ancient wisdom and modern science. The Rs3-crore project is in its last year. In its annual predictions made on April 16, the ashram said the monsoons would arrive late this year.