Devendra Fadnavis being sworn in as the BJP's first chief minister today may be a pyrrhic victory of sorts, falling well short of the dream of "shatpratishat BJP" (100 per cent BJP).
The Wankhede stadium may look spectacular but Fadnavis will need more than the blessings of Chhatrapati Shivaji whose image will look down on him from the stage to carry out governance with neither the numbers nor the coherence required for an alliance to survive. With the Sena deciding to boycott the swearing-in ceremony, the forebodings are dark indeed.
The nature of the fractured mandate makes it tough for the party to run the second non-Congress government in Maharashtra since 1960 without aligning with either the Sena (63 seats) or the NCP (41seats). At the best of times the Sena is a difficult partner to get along with and a sulking Sena will be impossible to handle. The BJP's present plan to ultimately survive by winning over MLAs is also a long shot. So the Sena will be present initially at least as a humiliated partner and so the road ahead is bumpy and the relationship fraught.
In the assembly campaign BJP leaders had promised to put corrupt Congress-NCP ministers behind bars. The irony of the BJP being forced to take the NCP's crutches, in case a deal with the Sena falls through, may not be lost on the people. In case the BJP manages to get the Sena to join the govt, the party says it will be on its (BJP) own terms.
Even more difficult will be the plans to push through some ambitious, forward looking developmental schemes like the "sabka saath, sabka vikas" plan.
Party leaders also speak about the need for the party to ensure that allegations of graft in sectors like irrigation are taken to their logical end and the state which is facing a massive debt burden pulled back.
So the question now is how will the tenuous arrangement with the NCP work? In a masterstroke aimed at marginalising the Sena, the NCP is slated to abstain from the trust vote, thus helping the BJP sail past the halfway mark in the 288-member house. In such a scenario, the looming shadow of Sharad Pawar will follow Fadnavis and this is not a good sign either. So at least initially Sena support will be obtained.
BJP leaders say the NCP may expect them to go soft on corruption issues in return for support to the minority government. This, they admit, may lead to the government being on the brink, with the likelihood of the NCP pulling the plug any time in the future.
That Fadnavis is a Brahmin may also lead to unease in the powerful Maratha-Kunbi lobby which has traditionally held all levers of power.
Fadnavis, whose stated vision for Maharashtra includes bringing in investment to the tune of Rs10 lakh crore to create 50 lakh jobs, hiking the growth rate, a service guarantee bill, aligning the Lokayukta with the anti-corruption bureau, balancing environment and business interests and a major thrust on e-governance, may find himself in a cleft.
However the one firm support he will have is from his wife Amruta who told dna: "It is the trust and faith shown by people of Maharashtra and leaders of the party that Devendra is taking oath as chief minister... I have prepared my mind to take the responsibility of the back-office, which is home now. I know he would be required to be in Mumbai and I also can get a transfer but I would decide on it after a month or so."
May you live in interesting times, goes a Chinese curse. Judging by the surprises thrown up in the Maharashtra elections, Fadnavis may live it in the near future.
—With inputs from Shailendra Paranjpe
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