Jury out on Pokhran II

Was Pokhran II a dud? Yes, said K Santhanam, coordinator of the Shakti series of nuclear tests in 1998, on Tuesday. Absolutely not, said the big guns of the establishment on Thursday.

Former president APJ Abdul Kalam, who as director-general of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) spearheaded the nuclear tests in 1998, said the tests were successful. “It has been established by the project team that the design yield of the thermonuclear test has been obtained,” said Kalam.

Former national security advisor Brajesh Mishra, too, rubbished Santhanam’s views. “Dr Kalam, who was then scientific adviser to the defence ministry, had openly said that the tests were successful. Dr Santhanam was working directly under Dr Kalam. That should set the record straight.”

Farooq Abdullah, whose party was then part of the ruling NDA, too added his voice: “The Pokhran tests were successful. I was personally there. There is no need to doubt it.”

After a cabinet meeting on Thursday, home minister P Chidambaram said: “I have seen the statement. I am puzzled. If you are not, then you are a genius.” He, however, said that he would ascertain the truth. Less than an hour later, an official rebuttal came from navy chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta, who said India’s nuclear deterrence capabilities were “proven and capable enough”.

Mehta, who heads the committee of the three service chiefs, said: “As far as we are concerned, we go by the views of the scientists. They have given us a certain capability and that is enough to provide deterrence.”

But the sceptics will not be silenced. More holes in the government’s official line were punched by former Atomic Energy Commission chairman PK Iyengar. “I hold on to my doubts,” he said, adding that deeper holes than those dug in Pokhran are needed to test a thermonuclear device. “I do not know exactly how deep the hole was,” he said. “It’s better that we test again and in deeper holes.”

Politically, Santhanam’s revelations, carried by Dainik Bhaskar (a sister publication of DNA) on Tuesday, seems to have struck at both the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government during the tests and the current Manmohan Singh administration.

The NDA’s legacy has been to defy world opinion and go ahead with the nuclear tests within a few months of coming to power. The BJP has maintained that the Congress did not have the guts to go ahead with the tests, even though they came close to it during PV Narasimha Rao’s regime; the tests were stalled under pressure from the US.

However, the ‘dud tests’ theory does not give Congress any crowing rights either. Singh’s claim to fame has been the nuclear deal with the US, which made India part of mainstream international nuclear commerce, that too without signing the non-proliferation treaty. Now, by claiming that Pokhran II was imperfect, Santhanam is implicitly calling for additional nuclear tests. The Indo-US nuclear agreement comes with the rider that another nuclear test would lead to its abrogation.

No wonder then, that the DRDO scientist’s claim has ruffled all feathers.Brajesh Mishra recalled that Rajagopalan Chidambaram, who was heading the test programme in 1998, had said that the team had conducted only five instead of six tests because they managed to obtain all the requisite data and information.

This is why the Vajpayee government declared a voluntary moratorium on further tests, which has been upheld by the UPA regime as well. Mishra added that perhaps Santhanam has put forth this view because he does not want India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Many in the Indian scientific establishment are against India giving up the option of further tests and Santhanam’s claims will strengthen the hands of all those wanting more tests to perfect the hydrogen bomb.

Analyst Praful Bidwai, who follows the nuclear debate closely, admits that the scientist has a point. “It is clear from a body of work done by independent analysts both here and abroad that India’s thermonuclear test fizzled out. Our fission bombs are fine.

The right lesson to learn from this is that the 100 or more fission bombs that India has is enough for a credible minimum deterrent that has been the mantra of both the NDA and Congress government,” he said.

In the next two to three years, India will be under tremendous pressure to sign on the dotted line. Once the CTBT is ratified in the US Congress, in all likelihood next year, every other country will follow suit. India, which maintains that it will not come on board, is unlikely to go against world opinion.

The man at the centre of the controversy, Santhanam remained unfazed. He told Dainik Bhaskar: “It’s a closing of the ranks. They want to establish that the claims made in 1998 were true.”

QUOTE: It has been established by the project team that the design yield of the thermo-nuclear test has been obtained
—Former president APJ Abdul Kalam
QUOTE: I hold on to my doubts. I do not know exactly how deep the hole (for test) was. It’s better that we test again and in deeper holes.
-Former Atomic Energy commission chairman PK Iyengar