Monsoon to arrive in country on May 30: IMD

This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to keep its date with Kerala. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that the onset of monsoon over Kerala is likely to happen on May 30 as conditions are favourable for its progress from the Andaman Sea. While the monsoon normally arrives in Kerala on June 1, last year it arrived one week late on June 8.

The IMD also said that conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of southwest Bay of Bengal and some remaining parts of Andaman Sea, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and during next 72 hours.

The IMD has used the statistical model and the forecast has a model error margin of ± 4 days. Usually, the monsoon covers the southern peninsula and eastern coastal states by June 7-8 and arrives in Mumbai on June 10, progressing to cover the entire country first week of July. The IMD used six markers to arrive at the forecast for onset of monsoon comprising of data on minimum temperatures over North-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula and outgoing long wave radiation over south China sea.

"There is no large impact or correlation between the arrival date of monsoon and its progress in the later weeks or its distribution in the country in the longer season. The onset only signals the beginning of the monsoon season in the sub-continent," said DS Pai, director, long-range weather forecasting centre, Pune, IMD.

According to private weather forecaster Skymet, monsoon is likely to make its onset over Kerala on May 29 with an error margin of ± 3 days.