Nepal charting a new course

The re-emergence of KP Oli at the helm of affairs in Nepal is a challenge that India has to negotiate very patiently with political skill and diplomatic finesse for a mutually beneficial win-win outcome.

There was never any doubt that Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) — who had been ousted as prime minister in 2016 after his confrontation with India — would return to the office. In the elections held in November 2017, the CPN-UML emerged as the largest party with 121 seats in the 274-member house. The Left Alliance (LA), comprising Oli’s party and Prachanda’s CPN-Maoist Centre, won 174 seats leaving the Himalayan state’s grand old party, the Nepali Congress, far behind.

That put paid to any expectation, especially in New Delhi, of keeping Oli out of power. The Indian establishment did not even conceal its disappointment and discomfiture over the LA’s sweeping victory in the parliamentary and provincial elections. The congratulations, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, were belated; and, more dutiful than warm and friendly.

After all, Oli’s handsome victory was because of his anti-India platform, necessitated by, among others, at least four developments: India’s bid, by sending our Foreign Secretary, to thwart Nepal from promulgating its new federal, republican constitution; the economic blockade of Nepal; India ‘internationalising’ its differences with Nepal; and, New Delhi being seen as the ‘foreign hand’ that pushed Oli out of office.

Not one to be beaten into submission, being targeted by India brought out the fight in Oli. It gave him a huge boost and raised his stature above that of his peers like the ‘revolutionary’ Prachanda and predecessors like Girija Prasad Koirala and K.P. Bhattarai. He had gone where they had feared to tread — and won the battle against the region’s big power.

The electoral triumph of Oli and the LA has given rise to great expectations. First and foremost, the LA is expected to ensure political stability; two, transform the character and quality of Nepalese politics; three, restore the eroded credibility of institutions such as the Supreme Court and Election Commission and check corruption and venality; and, four, put economic development at the centre of politics.

Living up to these expectations, in the best of times, is difficult for any government in Nepal, or, for that matter, in South Asia. Yet such expectations attest to the credentials of the LA and the hopes raised by Oli.

However, to make a beginning in this direction and be effective in government and at governance, Oli has to meet some tough pre-conditions. The most important of these are: squashing problems within the LA as it actualises the deal to a become a single communist party in mid-March; ensuring functional cohesion and smooth working of the LA partners; rebuilding Nepal’s time-tested ties with India; and, not allowing China to expand its presence and influence in Nepal at India’s expense.

The Maoists led by Prachanda would not be comfortable playing second fiddle, and would insist on their due in the merger deal struck on February 20. It was agreed that Oli would be prime minister for the first three years, followed by Prachanda for the last two. But, just before Oli was sworn in as Prime Minister on February 15, the Maoists kept out of the government on the grounds of unresolved “ideological and structural” issues. There can be no stability without the Maoists in government. The sooner they are on board and bound by an understanding, the better it would be for going ahead with the unification.

There are internal problems and clashing ambitions within both parties. These have to be dealt with, lest they make Oli’s functioning difficult. In fact, it is said that competing claims among the Maoists for being No. 2 under Oli made them keep out of the government.  Oli, for his part, has to avoid treading on the toes of senior UML leaders, especially Madhav Kumar Nepal. A transparent power-sharing formula between the LA constituents at the centre and in the seven provinces under LA would be the key to stability and completion of a full five-year term in office. Oli has to reach out to rivals and opponents within the LA and across the spectrum to gain all-round support.

Both Modi and Swaraj have reached out to Oli, who reciprocated adequately. This spurred Swaraj to visit Nepal earlier this month. In the interests of Nepal and bilateral relations, Oli has to get over the bitter phase of his ties with India. It would be impolitic, impractical and self-defeating for Oli to try and make China take India’s place in Nepal’s scheme of things. There is no way China and things Chinese can replace what India and all things Indian mean to Nepal and the Nepalese. India-Nepal bonds have civilisational roots. It is an abiding, many-splendoured relationship — the geography, history and much else of which cannot be changed in any one politician’s lifetime. The sooner Oli makes nice with India and Indians who matter for strengthening bilateral ties, the stronger he would emerge at home and in the region.

Oli was driven to hug China by the economic blockade and circumstances already cited earlier in this article. The crisis made him embrace China for sustaining Nepal’s lifeline. New Delhi knows that as also the reality that Nepal would never want to be in a situation where it is wholly dependent on India; and, that Kathmandu, for reasons of survival, would stick to the avenues of cooperation it has opened with China. That need not be cause for distrust or tension.

Nepal needs to balance its relations with India and China, and avoid any tilt towards the latter. It is not easy to maintain equidistance between Beijing and New Delhi. Yet it should be seen striving to do that while intensifying engagement with India at multiple levels.

Oli’s journey of a thousand steps must begin with the single step of winning friends and influencing people at home and in India.

The author, an independent political and foreign affairs commentator, is co-editor of the book State of Nepal