Mobile platforms fight it out for the future of computing

The mobile handset industry’s biggest annual show, Mobile World Congress, was held in Barcelona, Spain from Feb 14th. This year’s event saw more interest than ever, partly because it is now evident that the balance of power in the computing industry is moving inexorably to mobile devices: in 2010, for the first time, smartphones overtook PCs in sales. This trend will continue, especially with the advent of attractive tablet devices from many manufacturers.

There were several major stories around the show, the most dramatic being that of Nokia, the world’s biggest handset maker. After losing ground steadily for years — last quarter its Symbian software was dethroned as the leader in smartphones by Google’s Android software — Nokia decided to throw in the towel, retire Symbian and adopt Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 as its new platform.

There is a huge battle for mindshare between several companies’ software for the prize of dominating mobile computing: in addition to Microsoft and Google, there is of course Apple with its iconic iPhone and iPad; there is Hewlett-Packard with its purchase of Palm’s WebOS; Blackberry from Research in Motion; and a couple of other contenders. They are all hoping to win the prize: market share, and hence profitability. If their platform turns out to be the winner they will reap rich rewards, as has been seen in the case of Microsoft and Intel in PCs. If you have market share, you can attract software developers to your platform, which in turn attracts customers: a virtuous cycle.

Far more people already use mobile phones than computers; and given the dramatic increase in computing power and functionality in cellular devices, they are the computing system of the future.

They also have advantages over even the most portable computers. They are always on and always with the owner, unlike a PC. And they are self-aware: they ‘know’ where they are, thanks to GPS or triangulation from cell towers. With their many sensors they can ‘see’ and ‘hear’ what’s going on around, and they know which way they are pointing, how fast they are moving, and may soon know the ambient temperature and altitude.

Another advantage is that they can be converted into electronic wallets, with the SIM card used as a money-transfer mechanism — as has been done successfully in Africa — to reach people without bank accounts. With near-field-communication technology, a wave of your phone might also replace the swipe of a credit card.

There are downsides, of course. The cell phone might well become an electronic spy that keeps track of what you do, where you do it and with whom: a veritable treasure trove for suspicious spouses, private detectives, and income-tax authorities. Nevertheless, the potential for good is at least as high as the potential for bad outcomes.

The smartphone is far more advanced than a basic cell phone, something that you use to just send text messages and to make phone calls. There have been three clear phases in the evolution of the device: the first being the basic device, the second being the email feature-phone exemplified by the Blackberry, and the third the true smartphone, an internet device with hundreds of apps, as exemplified by the iPhone.

It is an interesting fact that the market leader in each phase has not been able to carry the lead over to the next phase. The failure of leading firms to take advantage of disruptive change is intriguing. One reason in this case is that, as cellphones matured, the critical competence has changed from hardware manufacturing (where Nokia excels) to software (where Silicon Valley firms excel).

It turns out today that the key to success is in building an ecosystem of third parties and their software. In this, Apple (with 300,000 apps) and Android (100,000 apps) are far ahead of the rest. Microsoft has been lagging, but its newly-minted alliance with Nokia should help it. Hewlett Packard, with its brand and reach, may help WebOS make strides — it has just announced a new tablet and smartphones. Blackberry, of course, has its niche with corporate road-warriors.

However, there is likely to be only room for three platforms: and that leads to the interesting question —which of these horses would you bet on?