The Zee Maha Exit Polls suggests a Sehwag-like innings for the NDA with most pollsters predicting 300+ seats for the ruling NDA.
The Zee Maha Exit Polls suggests a Sehwag-like innings for the NDA with most pollsters predicting 300+ seats for the ruling NDA.
It was grim reading for the Congress and other non-NDA parties with the Sunday forecast suggesting a roaring return for PM Modi’s BJP and NDA in 2019.
Congress which slumped to a humiliating 44 in 2014 has done very little to improve its tally, indicate exit polls. Infact, if they come out to be true, the Congress is in all likelihood, would end up less than 100, which would be a crushing second successive national defeat for the grand old party in Indian politics and pressure would build on Rahul Gandhi to step aside from the top leadership.
1. No coming-of-age - again
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Much of the pre-poll talk was Rahul Gandhi’s coming-of-age with magazine covers and op-eds in foreign publications announcing his arrival. The reality, if the exit polls are right, suggest that it’s still not here. The Cong-led UPA, according to the Zee Maha Exit Poll, is only set to get 117 seats which is far less than they would’ve hoped.
Exit Poll 2019: Congress finds silver linings in Kerala, Punjab projections
Even the maximum prediction is for 132 seats and in every state they are losing to BJP and its allies, with the exception of Tamil Nadu and Punjab.
2. BJP makes up lost ground
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While the Zee Maha Exit Poll suggests that BJP+ will end up with 49 seats in Uttar Pradesh from their total of 73 in 2014, they have made gains in Odisha, Bengal and Karnataka.
Even the pre-poll suggestion of the SP-BSP-RLD Mahagatbandhan appears to be overstated, which would be very bad news for regional parties which dominant caste bases.
The BJP and its allies are also expected to hold on to its seats in Maharashtra and Gujarat, two states they thought they'd be pegged back. They've also kept the Grand Alliance at bay in Bihar.
3. Regional parties battle for existence
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If the Zee Maha Exit Poll holds true, the BJP will have made serious dents in the bastions of various regional satraps. Despite Mamata Banerjee’s serious fight, and at times lumpen violence, the BJP has made gains in Bengal. The same goes for Odisha where Naveen Patnaik’s long-held bastion appears to be crumbling.
The future appears bleak for the likes of Mamata, Mayawati, Akhilesh, Naveen and their ilk if they can’t chalk out a different strategy.
4. Kaam bolta hai
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With a message of Hindutva plus vikas, the BJP has managed to break down previous barriers that were considered normal in the Indian political scenario. The BJP has challenged various parties in its domain which took voters for granted and it appears that PM Modi’s schemes like Swacch Bharat, Ujwala, Jan Dhan et al – no matter how much they were derided by the Opposition – has made a difference in grassroots. Even the most optimistic MGB prediction in Uttar Pradesh suggests that BJP will get 24 seats which means that many political parties will have to go back to the drawing board.
5. Messaging failure for Opposition
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Another area where the BJP has clearly seen off its rivals appear to be the messaging. While it has been a relentless juggernaut in reaching out to the last voter, Congress and its allies have wasted their breath by giving the oxygen of publicity to issues like the Rafale deal which hasn’t made an impact on the ground.
For example, while PM Modi’s achievements were kowtowed to the world, even Congress workers were in the dark about Rahul Gandhi’s Nyay Scheme, which was rolled out just before the 1st phase of the election.
6. Attempt at pan-national Grand Opposition falls flat
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Despite numerous attempts, the Congress failed to take a lead in creating an atmosphere for a grand alliance even though it was clear that it wouldn’t be able to take on the saffron juggernaut alone/ While it managed to forge alliances in Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha, it failed to get enough players on board. For long, the likes of Mamata Banerjee have been crying hoarse, asking for a one-vs-one fight against BJP but it didn’t work out.
