The cabinet reshuffle and expansion had lots of surprises. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah tried to maintain delicate balance between rewarding performance and pleasing RSS. Jagdeesh Chandra, CEO, ZMCL decodes the mystery of cabinet reshuffle and brings forth parameters taken into consideration during the reshuffle.
The Amit Shah factor is a phenomenon. There is a culture in BJP and those who know say that at least 80 percent appointments, postings and transfers have taken place on recommendations and opinion of Amit Shah.
RSS is an eternal fact of BJP. Amit Shah and Narendra Modi had discussed it in its entirety. He believes apart from the issue of Uma Bharti and Nitin Gadkari, whom RSS wanted to give Defence ministry ... there was no dispute or any difference in opinion was visible... then it can be ascertained that RSS had a complete role. The decision was taken by Amit Shah and Narendra Modi in consonance with RSS.
It is learnt that there was no consensus between them in terms of seat distribution. Nitish Kumar wanted two posts of cabinet ministers but Narendra Modi and Amit Shah wanted to give one each cabinet minister and minister of state which could be decided between them. Amit Shah and Narendra Modi feared that had two cabinet ranks been given to JDU, Shiv Sena and AIADMK would also make similar demands.
Story of AIADMK is different. There are two camps in the party... both the camps have joined hands broadly... after the death of Jayalalitha the scale of economic empire these people have, Income Tax is keeping a tight vigil... these people know their fate and broadly they also want to join hands with central government. Then consensus is clear.. but there is an issue that consensus is not there between camps of AIADMK. One camp with 21 MLAs has broken away and there is a risk that it can put up claim for chief minister. In that case, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah would not like to take any risk.
I think there will be fourth reshuffle. There are speculations that the expansion would take place on 17 September or 17 October in which JDU and AIADMK would be accommodated and decision on elevation of Shiv Sena will also be taken. The chapter hasn’t closed yet.
As far as CMs are concerned, it is learnt that few ministers of states may be inducted in the cabinet. Yes, there is no denying that one or two ministers may leave state politics to get a taste of central politics.
in this entire episode, Dharmendra Pradhan emerged as Hero No.1. The way he converted petroleum ministry from corporate ministry to ministry of poor, implemented Ujjwala Scheme, he got promotion at such a young age and with promotion he remained in the same department. Overall Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are satisfied with this reshuffle. They take their decision based on merit.
There were efforts to remove him from ministry last year also but PM used his veto to protect him. If Jaitley is removed at this juncture, a wrong message would be communicated to international community... that our decision on demonetisation and GST was wrong... and this will damage the image of government. That’s why PM used his veto and convinced RSS.
This is surprising. 4 retired bureaucrats were inducted in the cabinet. He must have thought that professionals should be brought in. Modi is known for doing experiments. He has done new experiment with Puri. Singh has been given power ministry while Alphons of Kerala has been given Tourism. This is a surprise element from the government.
There is only one factor in Rajasthan... that is Vasundhara Raje factor.... whatever happens in the state is in consultation with her ... as per her equation. That’s why if Shekhawat has been made minister, it is after consultation with her. Anandpal Singh was a gangster killed in an encounter. Despite that there was sympathy for him in Rajput community... Amit Shah might have taken feedback from RSS and Shekhawat is known to be close to RSS. It is possible that he has been made the minister keeping in mind elections scheduled next year. But it is not fair to say that Shekhawat got ministerial berth due to Anandpal factor.