BMC polls: Where each vote counts

Elections are never easy to predict. The civic poll is so much more difficult to foretell this time, thanks to new political alignments and the spate of reservations. The Congress-NCP alliance, for instance, could upset the ongoing reign of the Shiv Sena-BJP combine.

More than the political dynamic, there is a psephology dimension to the election. A compact electorate size and slim victory margins in local body polls can vex the best of calculations and make the difference between ruler and opposition. If parties are pulling out all the stops to get their supporters out on polling day, it’s because they know a building or two can make or mar their chances.

The Shiv Sena-BJP combine won the 2007 election primarily because of the division of votes between the Congress and the NCP. But neither side underestimates the power of numbers.
To understand how narrowly one could miss winning, here’s a look at how closely the last election was fought: Almost 50 seats out of 227 were decided by around 1,000 votes. Another 45-odd seats were won with a humbling edge of around 500 votes. This means a housing society of about 500 adults — and Mumbai has many — could well have skewed someone’s chances.

In some seats, you could count the differential votes on your fingers. In ward no 99 in Mulund, the winner got a mere 64 votes more. In ward no 160 in Kurla, the Sena won by 92 votes. In two other wards, the NCP and Congress romped home by just 50 votes. Of these, ward no 17 recorded the lowest victory margin at 46 votes. These are small, unimpressive numbers thrown into embarrassing relief by the fact that though the average voter strength is 45,000, less than half turn up to vote.

An analysis shows that these tens or hundreds of votes were decisive in almost 50% of the seats. Not that the other candidates posted magnificent wins. Only 14 seats had a respectable winning margin in the range of 6,000 votes. The maximum difference between the winner and the vanquished was just about 8,000 votes, seen in three seats.

The message is loud and clear. You, the individual voter, have more power over the outcome of this poll than any other factor. Unlike in a Lok Sabha or an assembly poll, you need not blame any other party for playing spoiler for your favourite candidate. For all you know, your friendly neighbourhood could end up playing kingmaker in BMC.

To be sure, local elections are boring. If Mumbai’s high brow and upper middle class are notorious for not wanting to stain their index finger during major polls, their turnout for the civic polls is even more pathetic. And, the fact that Mumbai has relatively better infrastructure in many respects — the roads are a dishonourable exceptions — tempts one to stay away from queuing up at the booth.

But this could change, either for the better or for the worse, and your vote will have a lot to do with it.