US losing ground in Afghanistan

America’s longest war is in Afghanistan which President Trump, during his election campaign, had pledged to quit. There is as before, no light at the end of the tunnel and according to one report, Trump has confided to one General in the White House that the previous NSA Lieutenant General HR McMaster inveigled him into making the open-ended commitment to keep US troops in Afghanistan. 

Trump’s first and only policy speech last August was on South Asia and Afghanistan in which he chided Pakistan for giving the US ‘only deceit and lies’ and praised India for its great developmental assistance and pledged to win the war. But despite US efforts, Pakistan has not budged. Even pressure by US Defence Secretary Lieutenant General Jim Mattis, of the ‘last chance to Pakistan’ fame, to get Pakistan to act against the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network, has not worked. 

There was a ray of hope once Trump relaxed the rules of engagement on use of armed drones, beginning September 15 last year, when missiles rained down in the heaviest drone attack since they began in 2004. Trump, in a fit of fury triggered by Taliban periodic onslaughts on Kabul, said: ‘we’re going to finish the Taliban’, Mattis let the cat out of the bag, describing victory as a ‘political reconciliation’ rather than a military victory in Afghanistan.

Every one of the P5 — the UK, the US, China, France and Russia (with Pakistan leading the blind) — has had a crack at political reconciliation with the so-called reconcilable Taliban. These efforts have now failed because Pakistan’s bottom line is a government in Kabul, which is favourable to Islamabad and it is only the Taliban that can provide it with strategic depth. While the National Unity Government (NUG) is under virtual siege by chaotic violence and mayhem perpetrated by the Taliban and IS, President Abdul Ghani had come up with the most comprehensive peace offer to Taliban earlier this year, a day after the Taliban wrote its unprecedented own first missive to the US – an open letter to the American people and the Congress – on a peaceful resolution. The letter had stated: ‘Even if you fight us for a 100 years, the result would be the same. You cannot win. America must end occupation and accept Taliban’s legitimate right to form a government.’ 

Taliban’s offer for direct talks with the US with its political office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was unusual. Taliban has previously insisted on foreign troops leaving Afghanistan, but the lack of clarity on this has been attributed to leaving contentious issues for negotiations. General John Nicholson, the US Commander in Afghanistan, said Nato forces have stepped up the offensive, targeting Taliban’s drug laboratories that finance its war. It is unlikely that stepped up drone and air strikes have influenced Taliban’s peace plan with the US.

Ghani’s offer of unconditional talks with Taliban followed their offer to the US. He recognises that peace without the Taliban is not feasible. His offer for talks coincided with the meeting of the Istanbul process in Kabul, which was attended by 25 countries to help bring peace and development in Afghanistan where Alice Wells, the US point person on Afghanistan, was present. The Ghani offer included ceasefire, recognition as a political party, demobilisation, opening political office in Kabul not Quetta or Islamabad, issue of passports, release of prisoners, and much more. Taliban refused the offer as it considers the Kabul government illegitimate. 

Rejecting the Taliban proposal for direct talks, Trump asked Taliban to engage the elected Afghan government. This came a day after Trump’s surprise agreement for direct talks with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to be held in Singapore on June 12.

As in the past, Pakistan has been both unable and unwilling to persuade Taliban for talks with Kabul. Equally the US, despite the combination of back-channel talks with Taliban and intensifying military pressure, failed to get the Taliban to the negotiating table. Instead, defiantly the Taliban launched their spring offensive called Operation Al Khandaq, named after the famous battle to defend Medina. They have said that they will target the US forces. 

Militarily, the strategic and tactical balance of advantage has shifted in favour of the Taliban, despite the US troop surge from 8,000 to 14,000 soldiers. The Afghan security forces have lost 36,000 combatants due to defection and desertion. The NUG is in total disarray with many of the warlords and Governors like  Ata Noor, Razik,  Ismail Khan, Abdul Khadam and Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum — openly defying Ghani by refusing to resign. The military situation is compounded with serial attacks by IS (targeting the Shia Hazaras), which has expanded its presence from three to 30 districts, moving beyond Nangerhar province. The casualty rate of nearly 20 soldiers killed a day is the highest probably on any battle zone on earth. The spike in attacks reflects the Taliban’s capacity, motivation and morale to capture districts (if not hold them) and threaten provincial capitals, which is messaging to the Americans: you will have to talk to us.

Given this dire ground reality, holding of provincial and presidential elections by 2018-19 appears problematic. India has become a key player in training and providing lethal equipment like 4 more Mi 24 helicopters and completing $2 million worth of developmental assistance with another $1 billion in the pipeline. The only tangible outcome from the Wuhan summit was an India-China joint  project in Afghanistan, whose future is rather bleak. 

The war in Afghanistan and the agony of its people fuelled by Taliban and Pakistan have been eclipsed by Trump’s preoccupation with Iran and North Korea. While Trump’s Afghanistan policy and Mattis’s last chance for Pakistan have both failed, India’s $3-billion investment has at least earned it Afghanistan’s goodwill and American appreciation.

The author was the India convenor of a regional project on peace and stability in Afghanistan. Views are personal.