Uncertainty in Pakistan over elections

Pakistan never fails to astonish; it’s the land of profound perplexities.  A country of 180 million people brought up on a culture of deep political uncertainties is never sure of what’s coming next.

Barely four weeks before the elections, scheduled to be held on May 11, media pundits within Pakistan are busy speculating whether elections could be held at all. The fast deteriorating security situation — Taliban militancy along with the almost a decade old (in the current phase) Balouch insurgency in Baluchistan — area-wise the largest province of Pakistan — is apparently the reason for this uncertainty. As usual, the conspiracy theories are again in circulation that “the army, keen to grab power, may engineer some dramatic violent incident” providing it a palpable alibi to put off the elections indefinitely. 

However, as a counter-argument, Benazir’s fateful demise is being put forward to silence the naysayers: “in Pakistan today there is no leader taller than Benazir in the political scene; in 2008 after her assassination, elections were deferred by only a few weeks”. For that matter, during the last five years after every few months, there used to be rumours of an imminent military coup in Islamabad.

Despite all the pessimism, for the first time in the history of Pakistan’s existence, a democratically elected government could complete its full five year term. If not a historical feat, it’s definitely a positive development for democracy, which needs to firm up its roots in future Pakistan. Another significant development that has considerably brightened the prospects of elections being held on time is the participation of the Balouch nationalist parties this time around. In the wake of Nawab Akbar Bugti’s murder in a military operation, virtually all the nationalist parties’ had stayed away from the 2008 elections in protest.

From India’s point of view, by and large anti-India rhetoric, staple during any election in Pakistan, is pleasantly missing this time. The “Liberation of Kashmir” rhetoric — “Jihad-e-Kashmir” even few years ago used to be described as a religiously ordained duty — is completely absent from the election discourse.

Ironically, the security establishment in India has failed to take notice of the changing dynamics of Pakistani polity. Here in India it’s being miscued that Pakistan’s severe internal dilemmas have forced a momentary change in its otherwise deep-seated hatred towards India. Without fully discounting this line of thinking that has kept the future of the sub-continent hostage to the sickening baggage of  history, the time may have come to factor  in the emerging realities as well.

Traditionally, the PPP to some extent was considered to be having a pro-India outlook. However, in 1999 the right-leaning Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League government took a big leap by accepting the idea of Lahore agreement. In 2001, the watershed 9/11 hadn’t happened. Militancy in Kashmir too was at its peak. The Jammaat-e-Islami of Pakistan had virtually created a ruckus in Lahore over the Indian Prime Minister’s arrival. At that point, acrimony was so deep that the then Pakistan army chief Pervez Musharraf had declined to salute the visiting Indian prime minister.

Still, Nawaz Sharif, then the prime minister of Pakistan, had dared to welcome Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s historic bus ride to Lahore. It’s another matter that few months later that bus was found parked in the heights of Kargil. Eventually, Nawaz Sharif after being dislodged from power, found himself lodged in the Attock fort, ironically on the banks of Indus. He had paid a heavy price only for dreaming about peace with India.

In 2013, the situation seems to have changed dramatically. The military establishment in Pakistan may still be hostile to the idea of friendly relations with India, but all the three main political parties — not only the PPP and PMLN, but the emerging PTI of cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan — favour the idea of peace with India.

In spite of Pakistan’s existential crises, it’s the economy that will make or break Pakistan.

Burdened by the continued phenomenal population growth and plagued by deep energy crisis, Pakistan’s economy is fast sinking. The forex reserves have reportedly shrunk to $6-7 billion. The first challenge for the next government, even before it comes to grips with the security situation, is to manage the issue of balance of payments. Probably, debt servicing will leave very little for the new government to deal with a burgeoning import bill that includes all-important crude oil to keep the wheel of the economy moving.

Pakistan has “one of the largest youth bulge” in the world; “35% of its population” is under 15.

What makes this election unique is the fact that “nearly half of the 84 million registered voters — 47.8 per cent — are aged between 18 and 35, while 19.77 per cent, or 16.88 million voters, are under the age of 26”. The manner and the level of participation of the young voters, said to be influenced by the charismatic Imran Khan, will decide the pattern of any change. Regardless of whether Pakistan votes for status quo represented by Nawaz Sharif, who seems to be in the lead according to some survey reports, or goes for Imran Khan, who has excited his followers with the idea of Naya new Pakistan — Zardari’s PPP seems to be out of the reckoning currently — the magnitude of the problems will remain the same.

Irrespective of the results, the new dispensation will have to find ways to create employment avenues for millions of aspiring youth soon. For an ailing economy, to create so many jobs will be an extremely difficult task. But lack of employment may lead one fourth of the population to embrace violence and extremism.  What a logjam!

The author, based in Srinagar, writes on contemporary issues