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| Edited By: Arghya Roy Chowdhury |Source: DNA webdesk |Updated: May 18, 2017, 01:35 PM IST
The greatest fun of covering Indian politics is its sheer unpredictable nature. Most pundits a decade back were predicting an increased dominance of regional parties and the tapering off of two major political parties. Yet, Narendra Modi emerged as the strongest man in the Indian political firmament of the last three decades, thanks to resentment against an inept and corrupt UPA regime, riding high on sentiments of a Hindu coalition. The BJP juggernaut has continued even after the 2014 general elections, amidst a heightened media gaze. With PM Modi leading from the front, the party has carved out a formidable ground for itself, with Congress increasingly being pushed towards political isolation and many regional satraps falling by the wayside. The current saffron political map of India as compared to maps of ‘India’ during rules of emperors from the past, have very few grey spots in over-enthusiastic Whatsapp forwards.
One feisty politician who so far has fended the Modi tsunami with ease is Mamata Banerjee. Even in 2014, BJP could manage only two seats out of 42 in West Bengal. Its successive efforts to enter Bengal have been largely ineffective. Hamstrung by a lack of charismatic leaders and a strong base in the state, the party’s campaign has been without much teeth, to eat into Mamata’s strong vote-base. And with the Bengal citadel strongly guarded, Didi has slowly started her outreach in national politics. Her meeting Sonia Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal for the President elections have to be looked at in that context.
Just a year back, the Left and Congress fought together in Bengal against TMC. Yet, faced with the electoral reality, the Congress high-command is now ready to bury the hatchet and take TMC’s help in the Presidential election. As Kartikeya Sharma pointed out in this piece, the opposition parties are currently in a state of flux with no coherent leadership and a common leader. While it is unlikely that any common leader will emerge before the 2019 general elections owing to various conflicting egos and interests at play, Mamata Banerjee is likely to assert an extended role in the opposition’s push against Modi.
While Didi hasn’t ever explicitly expressed her national goals, her surrogates have often mentioned that ‘Dilli chalo’ is firmly on Mamata’s mind. And why not, there are many boxes which she ticks. Mamata is virtually assured of winning 35+ seats in the next Lok Sabha elections, is widely looked at as ‘secular’, and is a strong woman in a largely male-controlled political arena. Even as senior TMC leaders are hunted down in corruption charges, Mamata’s personal integrity remains without blemish. All this makes her a potent and possible challenger to Narendra Modi. She, like Modi, is a commoner, with humble means who has made it big in the hustle and bustle of Indian politics by sheer merit and hard work. Apart from its assured seats in Bengal, TMC is also looking to extend its footprints in North-East to pick up some extra seats.
Other possible challengers to Narendra Modi are Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal, Naveen Patnaik, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi. Nitish has already ruled himself out of the race, Kejriwal’s AAP is currently imploding, Naveen is facing an assertive BJP in his home turf, while Akhilesh is still licking his wounds after a humiliating defeat. As for Rahul Gandhi, he is still trying to find his mojo, albeit unsuccessfully. Congress’ reliance on the Gandhis means Rahul’s position as heir apparent in the grand-old party is assured. But how much can he be a focal point for a wider consolidation of opposition forces remains to be seen.
Didi took up the cudgels of being a prominent opposition face during the demonetization period. While it didn’t deliver any political leverage, it showed that the TMC supremo is ready to take the national plunge. The next step is the President Election. It is a matter of speculation currently if the opposition can give a potent challenge to the ruling NDA regime, which has the numbers on their side. A spirited fight will give the message that the opposition still has the spine left to slug it out against Modi’s onslaught. 2019 may look to be a done deal currently, but so was 2004, when the India Shining campaign was in full swing. The opposition needs to be politically aware to exploit possible gaffes by the Modi regime. And in a street fighter like Mamata Banerjee, it may find a leader who can match the antics by the BJP, one step at a time.
