Reported By:
| Edited By: Ujjwal K Chowdhury |Source: DNA |Updated: Jul 01, 2018, 07:05 AM IST
The first signs of Lok Sabha polls, perhaps earlier than expected, are now being seen. The Jammu & Kashmir government has had an unceremonious death with the ruling parties PDP and BJP falling apart. The return to ‘a muscular Kashmir policy’ is already happening, demonstrated by zero tolerance towards Pakistani terrorists and homegrown extremists. It is less about the state and more about winning the support of the ‘right nationalist’ constituency across India.
Such sort of measures, were only to be expected. Back to back bypoll losses in UP, MP and Rajasthan, all of which have BJP governments, the recent failure to form the government in Karnataka, and discontent among allies of NDA like the Shiv Sena, JD(U) and Akali Dal, have put the ruling dispensation on the back-foot. On the other hand, the ‘Opposition Unity Index’ has now become a major talking point. What is specially being commented upon is the hectic activity in the Congress camp to win friends among regional parties and at times play second or third fiddle to them, though so far it seems Congress-BSP talks have broken down in MP.
Despite all these developments, the BJP still has the edge and with some deft moves can regain the narrative. Here are some suggestions as to how BJP can win back India for a second term for Modi.
The BJP would do well to advance the General Elections from April-May 2019 to October-November 2018 by six months and try to club 10-12 state assembly elections as well. This will deny much-needed time for the Opposition to unite and block the anti-BJP sentiments from swelling further. It will also prevent opposition parties from raising material resources to fight the elections of which they are extremely starved of just now, especially after demonetisation and loss of power in most states. A win in the Lok Sabha and around 10 assemblies will make BJP central to Indian politics for a decade more, with Modi-Shah at the core of this.
BJP can also usurp the electoral narrative and set the campaign tone with little efforts, unlike the Opposition. It has its own story of the achievements of 48 months of governance ready and in the public domain with a dashboard of daily progress. On the other side, the alternative narrative, governance perspective, Common Minimum Programme, and research to counter BJP’s claims are not ready with the Opposition. BJP can strike possible gold for the next five years with a narrative repeated constantly of an honest but strong-willed hard-working man versus a bunch of opportunists. For this reason, Modi’s incentive is to presidentialise the LS elections on leadership while the Opposition’s objective is to localise it.
Despite the presidential style, the BJP knows it needs allies and a conscious change in the style of functioning of BJP president Amit Shah is being seen, especially in accommodating the aspirations, demands and expectations of its three important regional partners who still command reasonable support in their states: JD(U) in Bihar, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and SAD in Punjab. The JD(U) bit is yet to happen. Alongside, taking advantage of regional issues, BJP must strike partnerships with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh and TSR in Telangana, apart from protecting its bonhomie with smaller parties in the Northeast and Bihar.
BJP holds power either on its own or with an alliance partner in 19 of India’s 29 states. When Modi took oath as PM, the BJP was in power in just seven states. Data shows that when the elections are hyper-localised, the BJP has performed poorly but when the canvas has become bigger, the saffron unit has invariably held an advantage. Today, the ruling party has far stronger control over the election machinery.
It, thus, allows BJP to localise the election with LS constituency-specific development manifesto to take the campaign to strike at the core of the usual strategy of regional parties. If the work done in each LS constituency represented by a BJP MP today and failures of other party MPs in other constituencies, along with the needs of each constituency with specific plans for them, are documented and put forth through its own social media and sections of the mainstream media, BJP can hit at the core of regional parties.
The verdict on Ram Janmabhoomi is due anytime and the ruling party can hope to get a favourable Supreme Court position on this, which can lead to a ‘Stand Vindicated’ campaign by the BJP. It must, however, take all precautions to prevent full-scale riot. Alongside, if any possible action, from arrest to elimination, can be taken against Dawood Ibrahim, even through the possible use of Mossad, it will have an immense impact on a presidential form of elections. Surely, the biggest challenge for PM Modi is in Uttar Pradesh, as access to Delhi always comes through Lucknow. Some strong development steps in UP, and for farmers in general, will be a major plank in his claim to a second term. MS Swaminathan’s proposals for agrarian reforms may be a possible measure in this direction.
Apart from effective management of media, social and mainstream, and image cultivation of the leader, BJP will also need some drastic measures to return to power, and the Governor’s Rule in J&K and the recent spate of pro-farmer measures are steps towards that direction.
The author is a media academic and columnist and former Dean of Symbiosis, Pune, and Amity University, Mumbai. Views are personal.
