Shiv Sena’s midlife crisis

The Shiv Sena, which showcases 50 years of struggle to create its own political space in Maharashtra, stands at the crossroads, facing multiple challenges and opportunities.

Floated by charismatic leader Balasaheb Thackeray in Marathi stronghold of central suburb of Mumbai metropolis as a cultural organization, Shiv Sena took no time to convert itself into a political entity. It gained support from unemployed youths as well as the capitalist lobby in the city — the latter was facing tough challenges from the communist trade unions. The right-wing party has not only survived in the absence of Balasaheb Thackeray but it has once again been catapulted to power in Maharashtra with its long-time poll ally — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Uddhav, who now leads the party, has managed to run the organisation like a well-oiled machine. He fought a lone battle in the last assembly elections and secured a sizeable presence for the Sena in the state assembly.

His only lament is the way the BJP stole the show with the Narendra Modi wave and emerged as the single largest party pushing the Sena to number two position. The Sena is taking solace from the fact that the regional parties have become powerful ever since the BJP got a brute majority in the general elections of 2014. All the elections to the state assemblies post 2014, have demonstrated the growing influence of regional parties. They haven’t allowed the BJP to get an upper hand. The Congress has also failed to revive its presence in these states.

Unlike other regional parties in the country, including the Trinamool Congress, DMK, AIADMK and the Biju Janata Dal, the Shiv Sena has failed to realize Balasaheb Thackeray’s dream of raising his party’s flag atop the Maharashtra legislative assembly. The Sena realised that due to its pre-poll alliance with the BJP for more than two decades in the state, its growth potential has been stymied. In 2014 assembly elections, Uddhav took a calculated risk by ending the 25-year-old alliance with the BJP. He followed the example of Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which had joined hands with the Congress to rule the state despite the bickering during the 1999 assembly elections. The Sena, which initially sat on opposition benches after the 2014 elections, changed its stance and joined the BJP-led government in the state. It was a sign that the Sena has learnt to imbibe the nuances of running a coalition government.

Celebrating its golden jubilee, the party is aware that it cannot afford to be complacent. It must remain alert to safeguard its turf and try to expand its base. Though basically the Sena drew strength from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation whose annual budget runs into Rs40,000 crore, it spread its network in rural areas only when Sharad Pawar merged his Congress (S) with the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress in 1986. At that point when Pawar returned to the Congress fold, many from his party, especially from the backward region of Marathwada, opted for the Sena, a non-BJP regional force in the state.

With India embracing globalisation policies, the middle-class grew in numbers across the country. The mall culture and market economy helped Sena expand its urban base from Mumbai-Nasik-Pune golden triangle to encompass Aurangabad, Kolhapur, Jalgaon and other tier two cities. 

The Sena’s alliance with the BJP has been a mixed blessing for the former. It is yet to adjust itself and fine-tune its strategy for survival and growth in the central government. Unlike under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who ran a minority government with the help of NDA partners, Narendra Modi is running the show without depending much on his poll allies. With Modi at the helms of the affairs, parties like Shiv Sena have very little bargaining power.

With changing political horizon, the BJP is also trying to expand its base in states, thus leaving the smaller regional parties jittery. The Sena, which had become sober under Uddhav’s leadership, has once again become aggressive. It has adopted a confrontational approach in its criticism of the Modi government’s policies. Pawar also used to blow hot and cold during the one-and-a-half decade of Congress-NCP rule in the state but he used to be more discreet. He never criticized Sonia Gandhi personally. The Sena and its mouthpiece the Saamana  newspaper has launched vicious attacks against the BJP government in Delhi as well as in Maharashtra. This hit-and-run policy adopted by the Sena has created a lot of tension for Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis as the trust deficit between the two ruling parties is growing dangerously.

The Sena will have to take a close look at its ideological base for survival as well as for possible growth. It has realized that with the dwindling demographic strength of the Marathi population in Mumbai metropolis, it will be difficult to retain its hold over Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation on the strength of its single-point agenda. Uddhav is seen to be adopting a more militant Hindutva stand for expanding his base in the city and other urban centres. He is attacking the Modi government on issues related to India’s handling of cross-border terrorism and New Delhi’s dealings with Pakistan. 

Again, with the induction of Uddhav’s son Aditya into the Yuva Sena and trying to forge a modern outlook for the party, the Sena is seen to be discarding some of its irrelevant agenda. By adopting aggressive policies and orchestrating sharp verbal attacks on the BJP government — terming the dispensation worse than the Nizam’s rule in Hyderabad — it is creating an identity crisis for the opposition parties, namely the Congress and the NCP.

So far the Sena has handled rebellion within the party without much damage. Several stalwarts, including Narayan Rane and Chhagan Bhujbal,  left the party without causing any dent in the Sena support base. The intensity of threat posed by Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has also reduced over the years. Now the real threat to the Sena influence comes not from the opposition parties but from its own alliance partner.

The BJP, armed with its own national network is planning to expand, thus creating a sense of insecurity in Sena circles. The real strength of the Sena comes from the same lower middle class Maharashtrians who feel that only the Sena can withstand the pressures of a market economy and offer them some relief.

The tenacity of BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will be tested during the BMC elections scheduled next year. The Sena is all set to go alone. It can hope to survive by capitalising on middle class insecurities and Marathi Asmita (ethos), growing terrorism threats from across the border and failure of the national parties to deal with complex identity issues created due to urbanization.

The writer is columnist, author and artist