Did the US lose the war or Afghan people?

Just two days ago, a student of mine, Sabiha (name changed) called from Kabul on my WhatsApp, requesting to issue a recommendation letter so that she can get admitted to western universities for further studies keeping in mind the tumultuous conditions in her country. She was hopeful as Canada plans to resettle more than 20,000 vulnerable Afghans, including women leaders, human rights workers and reporters, to protect them from Taliban reprisals.

This happened while desperate mothers were seen handing over their children across wires on top of high walls of the Hamid Karzai International Airport. Youth were seen desperately running along the giant C-17 Globemaster heavy-lift transport aircraft of the US Air Force, clinging on to it in hope of saving themselves from Taliban. It was heartrending to see men fall to death when the aircraft flew.

While few Indians were busy blaming all on Afghan people and debating on how Modi is good or bad for the country, the pictures and the voice of Sabiha, utterly desperate for a common life, are heart-rending. While Indian anchors were busy judging Afghans, sitting at Noida Sector 16 in the national capital region, the country deserves to know why the situation has come to this.

Biden has blamed it on Trump and co. for the faultiness in Afghan war, saying he inherited the war and would have done differently. He would not have sent American troops to fight a war which Afghan people didn’t want to fight, he said. But whatever happened in the last one week is not just about the US’ desperation to leave Afghanistan but a massive intelligence failure on the part of the US and all its allies.

It seems that Americans underestimated Taliban’s power on the ground and overestimated ousted President Ashraf Ghani’s might. Six weeks ago, President Biden called it highly unlikely that the Taliban would overrun the country. This is proof of how unprepared were the Americans before leaving a country to war. Obviously, they didn’t anticipate what will happen just weeks after. This reveals a serious intelligence failure on the part of US. It makes one wonder as to why the US was in total oblivion of the facts on ground, despite having been in Afghanistan for so long.

In the long run, there had been many mistakes by the US in Afghanistan but since the signing of the deal with Taliban, things went so bad so fast. The agreement which was portrayed as a peace agreement was a withdrawal agreement majorly. The US, through Doha agreement, put forward that they definitely were leaving soon and just asked promises from Taliban that they won’t do this or that.

While it was the US and Taliban in talks, the main party, the people of Afghanistan were ignored and were voiceless in this whole process which led the country to what it is today.

Now you may see number of news articles on how the Afghan government didn’t put a fight, the Afghan soldiers were at mistake, the US has done what it had to, etc. While these were just excuses on the part of the US and its allies, the truth is that the US failed in this war desperately because of its intelligence failure and grassroot incognizance.

The entire situation reeks of superpower humiliation and there is substantial proof of this argument.

The reason is still unknown as to why the US come to Afghanistan in October 2001. Was their aim to eliminate Taliban insurgency (if that’s the case, then they have failed)? Or to resurrect Afghanistan so that it won’t be used as a base to fight wars against the US (that we have to see in the long run)? Or just to fight a war in a different geographical location?

The US made a number of mistakes with the security forces, making them way too reliant on US intelligence and equipment. Afghanistan is still a narco-state. Although, it is not much spoken about, the Taliban’s finances are very much intact. Even without international aid, it can sponsor itself very easily.

Secondly, the US thought of the Taliban as a terror group but never focused on Taliban insurgency and military threat. They never assumed that the Taliban has governance experience, being an ideological and political movement. They even ignored that the Taliban was created and nurtured by Pakistan. It has logistical support and fresh recruits across the border from training camps and madrassa. This was proved right when various media networks interviewed people in the border areas of Pakistan and found them happy to see Taliban back in power.

Coming to how did things get bad so fast, it was Taliban’s military strategy. Since 2013 when the US stopped its combat operations, Taliban has been capturing rural areas, seizing control over large areas and then steadily moving towards the provincial capitals. So, if there is small village falling somewhere near Kandahar or Helmand, it was mostly ignored by the US military who were focused on provincial capitals.

Now the US’ ignorance of large swaths of land being taken in by Taliban, led to loss of check points and highways. When Afghanistan military wanted support of logistics and ammunition from outside or Kabul, they weren’t able to get the reinforcements, resulting in loss of morale and land. This domino effect throughout the country has led to what we see in Afghanistan today. Whatever way you look at it, the US has lost the war in a way that their aims were never fulfilled.

While America and its allies leave for their respective countries and states like Pakistan see it as an opportunity, the loss actually is of the common Afghan people, whose future is today on tenterhooks. 

The author is a senior academician and political analyst.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)