7 narratives that were challenged by AAP's stunning victory

AAP has won Delhi, hands down. The extent of the victory has shocked many, even Arvind Kejriwal, who said that he is scared by the margin of victory. The election result is not only a paradigm shift in Indian politics, it has also shattered many myths and narratives that were being cultivated post the May 16 Lok Sabha results. While Delhi is a miniscule part of India, it gains significance because of being the national capital, its largely cosmopolitan nature and constant media glare. So one can take a pointer from here about some of the trends that can unfold in the future. Here are 7 narratives that were challenged by AAP's victory in Delhi. 

The Modi wave is unwavering:

Well it was always going to happen, but the way the Modi wave was halted showed that much of it was due to lack of a credible opposition. On the national level, Modi is unparalleled  and can't be challenged at the moment. But in the local elections, Kejriwal was a potent challenge and the lack of credible local face till the end, hurt the BJP very hard. 

The days of regional satraps are over:

The Modi wave swept India in May and from Lalu to Nitish to Maya, many leaders were cut to size. But a feeling was that the verdict is for national parties and regional parties may soon secede their space. The subsequent state elections also pointed to that trend in some ways with parties like Shiv Sena, Haryana Janhit Congress etc doing very badly. But the PDP in Kashmir and AAP now have shown that regional parties are here to say. Some may argue that AAP is not a regional party, but in reality they are, in their political strength. Kejriwal understood this after the election drubbing and started micro-managing on the ground, raising everyday issues which resonated with the common voters. The regional satraps do it day in and day out, and they will always enjoy political currency. 

The days of freebie politics is gone:

This was one of the major narratives derived from the General Elections. UPA, with its Left-leaning welfare economic policies was shunted out and people gave a thumbs up to BJP, who believe in free market and liberal economics. It was interpreted as the enlightened middle-class voicing their disapproval at the populist dole-out schemes started by UPA, some like the Food Security Act in the last months of the government. But if the UPA was Centre-Left thanks to people like Chidambaram who maintained some balance, AAP with its prominent anti-big industry stand and generous promises to give several doles is firmly rooted in the Left. However, they have been accepted heartily by the people of Delhi, with the underclass massively putting their weight behind them. 

This is by far, the most important take-away from this election. Is the old adage of good economics equal to bad politics still as much a reality now in the rapidly urban inspirational India in 2015? In Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia has undertaken reforms specially in the labour sector and already as the Panchayat election results show, some ground has shifted from her feet. Going forward, Modi has to also decide on whether he will continue economic reforms in an aggressive pace or will he top it up with generous doles of populism keeping the election dynamics in mind. 

BJP's legendary organisation skills:

The narrative about this almost reached a mythical level post BJP's phenomenal sweep in UP in the general election. Ground organisation helps to win elections by mobilising committed voters, by convincing the undecided ones. The Left mastered this in West Bengal for three decades. BJP as a cadre-based party has a similar modus-operandi. But finally, organisation alone can't work magic if the overwhelming public sentiment is against a party. Before the Delhi Election, there were a flood of reports about how panna-pramukhs of BJP were active and how RSS sent 8,000 workers. But the end result is for everyone to see. 

PR is not equivalent to pyaar:

Increasingly, the Modi government looks dependent on a well-coordinated PR machinery to disseminate information. So all moves are well thought out and picture perfect. But the spontaneity is missing, something which establishes ready connect with the masses. In many cases, if the PM who is effectively the government personified, speaks out where clarity is needed, it will be much appreciated. From the ghar wapsi issue to church burning, the deafening silence is not really helping anybody. 

In this matter, Kejriwal has delivered a master class of communication. By repeatedly giving interviews and addressing the issue of being a 'bhagoda', he blunted criticism and finally resonated in the slogan of 'Paanch saal Kejriwal'.

BJP is likely to sweep most poll-going states:

Forget Delhi, BJP may be in for a nasty surprise in states like Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. If the party doesn't promote local leaders and empower them to match up to their political adversaries, it may well lose out, specially with increasing mobilisation of anti-BJP votes. It is a tad unfair to hope that Narendra Modi can cast his wand in every state even where the organisation is in a ramshackle. BJP, in the lead up to 2014, slowly became powerful in one state at a time, thanks to some efficient chief ministers who got generous support from the central leadership too. Narendra Modi was one among them and eventually he was the first among the equals. There is no reason for the party to leave that plan and just hope for Modi to win state after state. He may bring some incremental votes if his policies click, but the hard work has to be done by the cadres only. 

Communal polarisation helps BJP:

Well, it has helped BJP in some cases in the past for sure, but it definitely didn't help them in Delhi. In the Trilokpuri incident, the church burning certainly alienated a section of the moderate voters and the Christian community, many of whom voted for the BJP in the general elections. Some polls showed that AAP won nearly 80% of the votes of people from the minority sections. So it looks like communal polarisation didn't really helped BJP this time.