DNA Edit: Perils of prediction - Indian economy is still dependent on the monsoon

June is that month of the year when the news is normally grim. Given that more than half of India is reeling under drought-like conditions, it cannot be any other way.

Latest data from the country’s official weather forecaster, India Meteorological Department (IMD), shows that millions are struggling for drinking water as lakes have dried up and groundwater levels have depleted amid a sluggish monsoon. That, in turn, has impacted the sowing of key summer crops over the past two weeks. It also reveals that despite technological advancements, forecasting can be a tricky, not to mention, unpredictable exercise.

In April, the IMD had forecasted that India is likely to have a ‘near normal’ monsoon this year. It had slotted rainfall between 96-104% of the long-period average, which is 890 mm. As opposed to IMD, private weather forecaster Skymet had estimated a below par monsoon at 93% quantitative rainfall over the long period. Two months down the line, now the IMD believes that monsoon is 39% deficient till June 22 despite marginal improvements over the last week.

In its Sunday bulletin, the national weather forecaster said the monsoon advanced into parts of central Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha, remaining areas of Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Bihar, most parts of Chhattisgarh and some areas of eastern Uttar Pradesh. But the weather system’s poor intensity has stoked a severe water crisis in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

The bottom line is that the Indian economy, still largely agricultural, is dependent on the quantity of monsoon rain as a large part of the crop comes from monsoon-fed rains. A weak or bad rain is considered a big setback to India’s economy, invariably impacting the country’s GDP levels. This year appears to be no different.