ANALYSIS
PM Modi may have started on a good note with Pakistan, but relations between the two countries deteriorated pretty soon.
In May 2014, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s presence during his counterpart Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony was keenly discussed. If the hope was for a fresh start in the troubled relationship with its neighbour, this was not to be. Three years and after more than 963 ceasefire violations by Pakistan, the Modi government has had to resort to 'punitive strikes'. A far cry from what was dubbed as "saree-shawl diplomacy" between Modi and Sharif in the early days.
PM Modi had kicked off his tenure with the intention of building friendly relations with Pakistan. The two leaders shared much bonhomie and also sent gifts of a shawl and saree for their respective mothers.
But, the government received a major jolt just a month later when more than a dozen ceasefire violations were reported on the Indo-Pak border.
Another setback came just before the official talks between the two countries were due in August 2014, when Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit met Kashmiri separatist leaders. The secretary level talks which were scheduled to be held after a hiatus of two years were cancelled after the meeting.
Post this, though the two leaders met on several occasions, it was just cordial exchanges as several issues were always kept on the back burner and the tension between the two countries kept brewing.
Despite this, a high point was reached on Christmas Day in 2015, when PM Modi made a pit stop at Lahore on his return journey from Afghanistan, to greet Sharif on his birthday.
However, things nosedived quickly when India’s Air Force in Pathankot was attacked by Pakistani terrorists on January 2, 2016. Modi may have then realised what former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee had learnt, when his Indo-Pak bus diplomacy was reciprocated by the Kargil war in 1999.
But India still didn't give up on its neighbour even after the attack and agreed for the Pathankot probe to be carried out by a joint investigative team from both countries.
However, things deteriorated further when Pakistani media quoted the team reporting that India had “staged” the terrorist act to defame the country.
Deciding to change the narrative, PM Modi in his Independence Day address last year then chose to speak about human rights violations in Pakistan's Balochistan region.
Meanwhile, the relationship between the two countries continued to go downhill.
On September 18, 2016, India’s Army camp in Uri was attacked by terrorists, which led to the death of 17 soldiers.
Now, the Indian government wouldn’t stay quiet any longer. It was time to send a strong message. Ten days later, India conducted a surgical strike in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK) and killed 38 militants.
While Pakistan continued ceasefire violations in Kashmir, India retaliated strongly. It also toughened its stance, right from rethinking the Indus Water Treaty to boycotting the SAARC summit in Pakistan to reviewing the Most Favoured Nation status for Pakistan.
Earlier this month, two Indian soldiers were mutilated by Pakistan’s Border Action Team. A few days later, Pakistan’s military court pronounced a death sentence to former Indian Navy officer Kulbhushan Jadhav accusing him of being a "spy".
However, Pakistan was checkmated again, when the International Court of Justice ruled in favour of India staying Jadhav's hanging. On Tuesday, the Indian Army released a video and declared that they had attacked and destroyed Pakistani posts along their de-facto border.
Though there's no telling if relations between the two countries will improve, the Modi government seems to be winning the perception battle right now. From extending a hand to befriend the neighbour, to calling Pakistan a “terrorist state” in the United Nations, the saree-shawl diplomacy has now turned into a game of chess and India has asserted that it will only retaliate strongly going forward.
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