Bihar Elections 2015: In Yadav strongholds, Lalu's charm still endures

At the corner of a road that leads to the main market of Saharsa town in Bihar, residents of a small village called Baijnathpur are celebrating Sardar Patel’s birth anniversary. Patel’s photo has been installed on a platform, with a candle burning on each side of it. Since all the lights are out, the two flames look striking in the pitch-dark spectacle. A few residents of the village are comfortably sitting on chairs kept near the platform, and these chairs are extremely dear to them. Dinesh Prasad Yadav, the head of the village, explains why such a seemingly insignificant thing matters so much to him. “For most of my life, I have yearned to sit on a chair like people from the upper castes. But they always made me sit on the ground,” he says. “Had Laluji not been there for us, we would have remained on the ground in perpetuity.”

Yadavs form nearly 14% of the state’s population, and in the Saharsa and Madhepura districts, it is even more dense, making it a bastion of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Before the introduction of the Mandal Commission in 1989, Bihar was plagued with the tyranny of the upper castes. Yadavs, belonging to the Other Backward Caste (OBC) endured the wrath of this for generations. The Mandal Commission ensured political representation to the OBCs and this shaped Lalu’s politics. The most notable change he triggered after assuming Chief Ministership was to emancipate the Yadavs. It has been 25 years since Lalu first became the Chief Minister of Bihar, but the Yadavs here still remain indebted.

“Laluji gave us voice, restored our self-respect,” says Dinesh, and others around him nod in agreement. “How can we desert him? Even a kid belonging to the Rajput or Brahmin community used to treat us with contempt. Today, the same caste offers us a chair. Laluji showed them their place.” On being asked about the term ‘jungle raj’ or the fodder scam, Dinesh dismisses the allegations. “For the first time, a Yadav had become the Chief Minister. The upper caste could not digest it and therefore, targeted him and tried to tarnish his image. The upper caste media played along too,” he says.

Around 40 kilometers from Saharsa, at Madhepura’s BN Mandal University, Professor Naresh Kumar, who teaches Chemistry, says, “Nobody had even thought a university or medical college or a factory would be installed in Madhepura. Lalu’s predecessors always ignored the district because of the Yadav concentration.”

Over the years, Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal​ (RJD) has been able to muster a large chunk of the Yadav voteshare. In 2000, his party got 80% of it, only to outperform itself in 2005 by gaining 83%. In 2010, though, it came down to 69%. Amidst the Modi-wave of the 2014 general elections, he clung on to 64% of his votebank. The Yadavs had steadily started moving away from Lalu, which became apparent in 2010 when the RJD’s tally of 124 seats in 2000 was reduced to 22. His epitaphs were shortly written after that.

Nonetheless, the Yadavs seem to be coming back to Lalu in 2015 and Mohan Bhagwat may receive a thank you card after the results.

In Madhepura’s Tuniyahi village, Suresh Prasad Yadav, a farmer, says the BJP has always been pandering to the upper caste. “Mohan Bhagwat talks of rethinking the reservation,” he says. “How do we trust Modi when he says ‘sabka sath sabka vikas’?”

Tuniyahi was ravaged in the 2008 floods and it still suffers from poverty and the aftermath of the floods. Many farmers had to sell off their livestock to resurrect their devastated lives. Most of the Yadavs in Bihar still earn their bread from agriculture and milk products. A divergence from the main road leads to this poorly developed village, with no concrete roads. Fragile huts constructed of bamboo with cows and bulls occupying the verandah greet the eye. Bare-bodied farmers milk cows and prepare fodder on both sides of a tiny sandy lane that runs through the village. Women remain in the house as the men speak. This village beats for the veteran politician as well.  

Lalu, being the astute politician he is, has highlighted the Bhagwat rant and called for Mandal part 2. This has made another Yadav - Pappu, a lesser factor. A five-time MP from Madhepura, Pappu Yadav enjoys a star-like popularity in the district. He came up in the early 90s during the turbulent times for the Yadavs, and they soon took to him, given his aggressive nature. Pappu’s Madhepura constituency has 13 assembly seats.

Pappu’s bitter parting with Lalu changed the equation. He formed his own Jan Adhikar Party and has fielded candidates, but he does not seem to be getting the traction everyone thought he would. Given his mass base and popularity, Pappu will definitely garner some votes, but he is called what Owaisi is referred to as in Kishanganj - a 'vote katwa' or a spoiler. He is perceived as a force peddled by the BJP to encumber Lalu. However, Pappu disagrees. “I do not believe in caste and creed,” he says. “This region is my home and it is my democratic right to contest elections. You have Owaisi, NCP, Mulayam contesting in Bihar. Yet I'm called the 'vote katwa'?”  

There is undoubtedly a vertical split in Bihar. And Bhagwat has played a critical role in it. Experts say his comment consolidated the OBC votes in favour of the Grand Alliance and brought them back in the game when the NDA seemed to be surging ahead. The caste polarisation means the Yadavs would want to make their vote count.

“Pappu’s craze is still intact,” says Roshan Kumar, teacher of a primary school in Saharsa, who voted for him in the 2014 general elections. “He is a local leader with easy accessibility. However, I will not vote for him this time around as that would benefit the BJP.” Umesh Yadav, Pappu’s campaign manager in 2014, says his image has taken a hit after he deserted the patriarch. “He will not be a big factor,” he says. “This election will be fought between the NDA and the Grand Alliance.”  

In the 2014 general elections, the BJP received unprecedented success in Bihar, which would not have been possible without the Yadav vote. Many, though, have become disillusioned by the new government’s functioning at the centre. Dinesh Prasad Yadav’s wife, Rajudevi, wearing a ghoonghat, says Modi went hammer and tongs against inflation, but under his rule, the situation has become even worse. “The dal we cooked at our house used to be thick,” she says. “Now we make sure a kilo suffices for at least 20 days. Plus, the costs of onions and oil have also sky-rocketed.”

AK Mandal, a doctor in Madhepura and the grandson of BN Mandal, says people vote with a different mindset for an assembly election. “People voted for Modi in 2014 because they wanted Congress out of power. But this is a state election,” he says. He adds that the less educated Yadavs keep voting Lalu because of the “ghulam mentality”.

The educated and young, though, seem to tilt towards Modi or, to a lesser extent, Pappu. Amar Kumar Yadav, in his late 20s, says he supports Modi, who deserves a chance. “Modi has set an example by developing Gujarat,” he says. “He has made India proud globally by visiting all those countries. He is derided only because he is a proud Hindu.”

Bhulogchand Prasad Yadav, an advocate in Madhepura, opines that the educated have moved beyond the confines of caste and do not look at the world from that prism. “For them, development is more important. They prefer Nitish or Modi over Lalu,” he says. “Some youngsters also like Pappu because of his charisma.”

Pankaj Kumar Yadav, 21, studying MA at BN Mandal University, says it is Nitish who has taken Bihar forward. “A student wants educational opportunities,” he says. “And Nitish has made sure kids attend school by providing cycles and mid-day meals. He has reduced crime rate as well.” This election is no doubt a make or break for the former Chief Minister of Bihar and it is apparent considering the allotment of seats.

48 out of 101 seats have been doled out to the Yadav community as opposed to 33 in 2010. In case of a three-way fight, more than half would be pocketed by Lalu, with the other half shared by NDA and Pappu eating into a bit of Lalu’s vote.

However, it is the Muslim voteshare that will ensure an overwhelming lead for Lalu over the two rivals. Muslims form at least 17% of Bihar’s population and were pivotal in RJD remaining in power from 1990 to 2005. In 2005, Ram Vilas Paswan’s decision to contest on his own, split the Muslim vote and Lalu’s voteshare decreased to 36% from 48%. It got worse in 2010 - 32%, making it apparent that he did not hold the cinch on his Muslim mass base any longer. However, the M-Y equation seems to be working again for Lalu this time around.

Incidents like Dadri, beef politics and Amit Shah’s statement of crackers going off in Pakistan in case of a BJP loss, have resonated here. It has prompted the Muslims to revisit the vicious times of the 90s and pushed them towards the Grand Alliance, especially Lalu. Shahnawaz Hussain, BJP’s minority face, says, “Amit Shah meant there are many forces who do not want to see India strong. And Pakistan is one of them. If BJP loses in Bihar, the state will not develop and if Bihar does not progress, India will not progress.” Shahnawaz’s attempt to clarify, though, does not seem to convince the electorate. Mehmood Alam, a farmer, says, Modi has always been communal and cannot be trusted. “Why does he not stop his cabinet ministers from making communal statements?” he asks. “Because he does not want to. That is the core of his politics.”

Annawarul Hasan, a shopkeeper in Madhepura, around 120 kilometres from Samastipur, where LK Advani was arrested on Lalu’s order in 1990, says the Muslims were secure and safe under Lalu even when the Ram Janmanbhoomi movement was at its peak. “It requires courage to arrest Advani,” he says. “We need someone like Lalu today who will stand firmly against the bigotry.”

When Nitish Kumar joined hands with Lalu, many believed it would hurt his image and that he would lose ground. Nonetheless, the grassroot reality palpably indicates that Lalu has propelled the Grand Alliance. “As a matter of fact, Lalu has transferred all his voteshare, but Nitish has not,” says Naresh Kumar. “Bihar politics has always been caste driven and Lalu is a symbol of the Yadavs.”

The educated might be ambivalent about Lalu, but most of the Yadavs are downtrodden, who remain smitten by the man. Abhinandan Kumar Yadav, 19, a farmer’s son in Tuniyahi and a first-time voter, says he will vote for Lalu because his family has been a fan. “My parents tell me that the reason behind people treating us with respect is Lalu ji,” he says. “I like his charisma and demeanor.”

Naresh Kumar says there is a perception in Bihar, not without reason, that the caste of the chief minister tends to benefit the most. “Whether Lalu is convicted or acquitted, whether he is in jail or not, his charisma, his appeal and his politics will remain relevant in Bihar because of the sheer quantum of the voteshare firmly standing behind him.”

Abhinandan Kumar Yadav’s sister, Sampatti, a year older than him, goes on to praise Nitish for the betterment of schooling in Bihar and the availability of cycles. She says Nitish has made Bihar safe for women and that she will vote the Grand Alliance. On asked if Nitish and Lalu had not been together, who would have been her choice, she smiles and says, “Lalu ji.”