The tortuous road to stability

Polls in local bodies of a state hardly interest people outside that state unless there are distinct political trends, which are being monitored. However, J&K is a different kettle of fish. It is not the fortunes of any particular political party or dispensation which is at stake. Rather, the entire gamut of a 28-year-old proxy war, the status of which is largely indicated through the barometer of the upcoming elections. Hence, the deep interest which needs to be converted to informed interest. Municipal polls are to be held between October 1 and 5 and the panchayat elections from November 8 onwards. Is there an urgency about the polls and will the manner in which they are conducted have any impact? What is the feasibility of success in the light of the two main Kashmir-based parties, National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) deciding to pull out of the polls on the issue of Article 35A? These are questions begging for answers. However, before proceeding to get a modicum of an idea on what local bodies’ empowerment in India is all about, it may be worth remembering that the postponed Anantnag assembly by-election is the longest delay for any assembly seat in the country. If that election is yet to be held, why should these polls go through?

The Panchayati Raj system is about decentralised administration and was formalised in 1992 to give it a constitutional status. It was first introduced in Nagaur district of Rajasthan in 1959 and progressively adopted by other states. The only states lacking it today are Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram, and Delhi is the only union territory without it. The 73rd and 74th amendments in 1992 streamlined both municipal and rural self-government, respectively, giving it certain statutory rules. However, with non-applicability of Indian laws in the state of J&K, it was in 1989 that a Panchayati Raj Act was passed by the assembly. Thus, while the system in principle exists in the state, it is not under the provisions of the 73rd and 74th amendments, which make it mandatory for financial empowerment by the central and state finance commissions. The first election in J&K under the Act of 1989 was held only in 2001, although it could not be successful in all parts of the state due to the prevailing situation. In 2005, the municipal elections were conducted successfully and in 2011, the panchayat polls, too, were finally held. I happened to be in Kashmir on both occasions. There was tremendous enthusiasm about local self-government; the turnout was 80 per cent at places and very high even at the traditionally low-turnout areas in 2011. However, for the separatists and terrorist groups, any democratic process under Indian supervision was considered a potential legitimisation of India’s hold and had to be resisted violently or otherwise. The polls could not be stopped, nor the turnout diluted. But, thereafter, 16 members of the panchayats have been targeted and killed and 30 injured, forcing many to resign from their positions under threats; the threats increased manifold after Burhan Wani’s death in July, 2016. Importantly, no effort was made by the state government to financially empower the rural bodies or delegate necessary power to them. The next elections after 2011 were due in 2016 but could not be conducted because of the security situation. The postponed elections are now being held in 2018.

With that background, we can conclude that the timing is not mandatory but the successful conduct can project a degree of stability in J&K under Governor’s rule. It could be argued for argument’s sake that the Anantnag assembly bypoll is currently not necessary with the assembly in suspension, which could extend to it being dissolved. The NC and PDP have found a means of projecting their stand on Article 35A in stronger terms by withdrawing from the elections. It is hard to assess how their non-participation has affected the legitimacy of these polls since, theoretically, these elections are supposed to be non-political. Yet, the absence of the two parties may obliquely give strength to the separatists’ call to boycott the polls. The parties are, of course, using their democratic right to protest but if, in the course, it hurts the interests of the nation, will it be right to be doing so? As regards the security situation, it has marginally improved, although the potential for it to be revved up by contrived triggers always exists. The Central government was bold in 1996 to reintroduce the democratic process within six years of the breakout of a serious militancy and proxy war against the state. In 2008, the state elections were successfully conducted immediately after the onset of street turbulence and the same followed in 2011 with the panchayat polls after the continuous three-year period of restive streets. So, there is no reason why the elections cannot be conducted. Will there be enough candidates to contest and can their security be guaranteed? The targeting of some candidates is bound to take place. Terrorists have already warned voters and candidates to come with their funeral shrouds.

The turnout in the polls may not matter to the Centre as long as the local bodies are formed. What really matters is the situation thereafter. Two things are necessary if there has to be any success after undertaking this entire exercise. First, the empowerment of the bodies and members must take place early. Can this happen under Governor’s rule or does it have to await the return of an elected government? Since this pertains to the devolution of powers and special funds, perhaps, the latter may be necessary. The second issue is the security of the elected members. Given the tenuous situation in the state, members will not be safe. And, en masse resignations under pressure will spell a moral victory for terrorists and the separatists. Under these circumstances, triggers such as Article 35A will be exploited by anti-national elements. J&K is unlikely to see stability in the near future, given the series of obstacles to peace.

The author commanded the 15 Corps in J&K and is now the Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir. Views expressed are personal.