Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk- What will be next: Understanding salami slicing policy of Russia

Ukraine has its own importance on the global geostrategic platform. Not only being the gateway to Europe or Russia, but it also holds a special distinction of being the richest among European countries not only in terms of natural resources, but it also has the highest area in terms of cultivatable agricultural land. Ukraine can feed the entire continent of Europe for years and that’s why it is important for them. Ukraine is also important for Russia as it acts as a buffer state between NATO and Kremlin. It also acts as a carrier for various Russian oil pipelines moving across entire Europe. While it has importance for European Union, it can give a big boost to Russian economy too.

The events which led to Russian Annexation of Crimea in 2014 and recognising Donetsk & Luhansk as independent people’s republics yesterday (February 21, 2022) were very well expected. The script was written way back in late 2013 and early 2014 when Ukrainian Revolution started in Kyiv. Before we go further into details, it is pertinent to understand the demography of Ukraine which has a sizeable population of Tartars in Crimea and Russian people in its eastern part especially in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv, while rest of the areas have predominantly Ukrainian population. The strategic location of Ukraine has made it lucrative for America and there is ample evidence to prove that the series of events leading to the Ukrainian Revolution were orchestrated by United States for its own vested interests.

So, when in February 2014 the US-backed armed mercenaries stormed the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv after a series of violent protests and forced impeachment of president, Viktor Yanukovych, things turned ugly for Kremlin and for a seasoned spy like Vladimir Putin, a new challenge emerged to save Ukraine from becoming a puppet in American hands. It had to activate pro-Russian elements in Ukraine to save Russian stakes in Ukraine and as a result, series of anti-government protests started in Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv which soon turned into a separatist movement with active support of Russia.

The first region to fall was Crimea where Kremlin took rightful advantage of the geography and moved its forces through Novorossiysk and in a near bloodless action forced complete Ukrainian withdrawal from this peninsula by end of March 2014. Later in a much-disputed referendum, Crimea decided to split from Ukraine. Although western world had put severe economic sanctions on Russia, but it sailed through the worst & managed to sail well within next two years.

Russia has a big dilemma as it can not allow Ukraine to fall for NATO. This will bring both military and economic catastrophe for Moscow and thus, it wanted to avoid it at any cost. Armed separatist movement in Donetsk, Luhansk and other areas of Ukraine were intensified resulting in declaration of two separate republics carved out of Ukraine. Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) by April 2014. Soon international powers got activated and mediated for Minsk agreements where both sides made promises however none of them delivered and situation remained tense. Large territories in the eastern part of Europe are controlled by Russia backed separatists of DPR and LPR who have sophisticated weapons and a well-oiled civilian machinery.

Events of last few months where entire world was expecting a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine were quite interesting if we closely analyse its timeline. But with the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics, Russia has achieved a big goal. It not only cut off a large portion of Ukraine but also created a buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia for any future eventuality of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO. This action will also destabilise Ukraine and send a stern message to its leadership. As far as further economic sanctions are concerned, Russia has learnt from the past and can sail through these sanctions easily.

Russia adopted this Salami Slicing strategy in Georgia too and its actions in Ukraine are not yet over. The biggest question of the day is what after Crimea, Donetsk & Luhansk? Apparently, when we see Ukraine in totality, almost 37% of its people speak only Russian Language and are much closer to Russia than European Union or NATO. If we analyse this on a demographic basis, out of 24 primary oblasts (States) of Ukraine, 8 have sizeable Russian Population. These are Crimea (97%), Donetsk (93%), Luhansk (89%), Odessa (85%), Zaporizhzhia (81%), Kharkiv (74%), Dnipropetrovsk (72%) and Mykolaiv (66%). While top three of them have already been separated from Ukraine, the future of rest of them is also uncertain. These are the provinces located in the Eastern or South-Eastern of Ukraine and a larger number of its residents are pro-Russian and have been engaged in heated protests against Ukrainian government in the past. If situation continues to remain tense, there are high chances that these provinces will be the next. Tensions are already boiling in Kharkiv as I write these lines and we will have to see as to when balloon goes up.

Read | Ukraine Crisis - Will Russia be able to sustain western economic sanctions?

Globally, we must understand that the root of the problem lies in economic aspects, and it has to be analysed separately from a territorial issue. It is not territorial expansion of Russia but a move to safeguard its own interests. World has to watch closely and the only solution to this problem lies in an amicable solution acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia. While Ukraine is connected with Russia through an invisible Social and cultural umbilical cord, Russia has to respect Ukrainian’s rights too

The author is a veteran from Armed Forces. He is a known Defence Strategist with keen interests in international affairs, maritime security, terrorism and internal security.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)