Maharashtra Elections 2014: Why parties need to move beyond the seat sharing squabble

The upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra must be termed unique. Unique because the winner of this match is already decided before a ball is bowled. There is no doubt about the Shiv Sena-BJP’s triumph and experts believe that the success could well be unprecedented. The recent bypoll results will not alter this situation.

Maharashtra has been a bastion of the Congress for the longest time. Even in the darkest of hours, it has managed to hold on to this fortress. It did not concede power even during the anti-Indira wave that started in 1977. Though the Janata Party did well in the 1978 assembly elections here, Congress could cling on to power courtesy Vidarbha. Had Sharad Pawar not ditched Congress, we would never have heard of the Progressive Democratic Front.

Before Maharashtra’s inception, Congress suffered a major setback in the Mumbai state assembly elections of 1957. Candidates of the Samyukta Maharashtra Samiti had jolted the Congress. However, MLAs elected from the Gujarati vicinity rescued the party and avoided the defeat. 

This regime started getting serious headaches post 1985. Pawar returned to the Congress in 1988 and became Chief Minister with Rajiv Gandhi’s blessings. Nonetheless, it was exactly during this period, that Shiv Sena started making inroads in rural Maharashtra under the leadership of Chhagan Bhujbal. Before this, Sharad Pawar as an opposition leader (1980- 85) used to hold the keys of the opposition parties. But his return to the Congress created a void as far as the opposition was concerned which was filled by Shiv Sena. Its consequences were seen in the state elections of 1990. Though Pawar was not capsized, the number of elected MLAs of the Sena-BJP alliance was a dangerous augury for him. He had to reach out to independents as he limped across the 145 mark. In 1995, the Shiv Sena-BJP assumed power for the first time with the help of independents. As a result, Maharashtra welcomed its first non-Congress chief minister, Manohar Joshi.

In 2014 though, the situation is entirely different. For the first time after the inception of Maharashtra state, the opposition could end up with an absolute majority. The electorate finds the Congress-NCP repulsive and Narendra Modi’s popularity would definitely give them a push. With everything working for the opposition, the atmosphere in their camp should be full of gaiety and mirth. They should be thinking about drafting new strategies. However, the situation is different. The two parties are still quarreling over seat-sharing. Shiv Sena has been the elder brother hitherto, but the BJP appears to have become greedy after the unprecedented win at the Centre. But Shiv Sena no longer has the authoritative Bal Thackeray, who could dictate terms. The architect of this amalgamation, Pramod Mahajan, had accepted Thackeray’s supremacy. However, for the first time, the equation seems to be changing. The relationship is getting frosty. BJP leaders have repeatedly insinuated this in the last three months, but it became palpable when Amit Shah, during his Mumbai visit, visited Matoshree only after he was invited.

There is no doubt that Shiv Sena’s insecurity is directly proportional to Modi’s rising popularity. On top of it, if BJP finishes with better numbers than that of Shiv Sena, then the situation will get more complicated for them. In this context, it should not come as a surprise if BJP attempts to hurt Shiv Sena.

The BJP camp though, is bubbling with over-enthusiasm. Nitin Gadkari, Devendra Fadnavis, Vinod Tawde, Eknath Khadse are all in the race to install themselves in the CM’s chair. Had Gopinath Munde been alive, this question would never have arisen. But his absence has given rise to more questions than answers. The OBCs still feel alienated, thereby responding to Pankaja Munde’s Sangharsh Yatra. Moreover, Gopinath Munde had the ability to deal with everyone under NDA’s umbrella. On the one hand, he had cordial relations with Uddhav Thackeray and on the other; he was as genial with Ramdas Athavle, Mahadev Jankar and Raju Shetty. At the moment, there is no one who can be this bridge and fill the void, resulting in the misunderstandings that have come to the fore.

As far as the Congress-NCP alliance is concerned, the less said the better. They have not recovered from the decimation in the Lok Sabha elections, hoping for Modi’s charisma to wane and local arithmetic to provide some sort of miracle. Pawar seems ineffective in motivating the NCP cadre. The NCP has always played its politics of money and muscle power and failed to understand the grassroot reality. However, there is no doubt that they will realise the gravity of the anger against them among the electorate.

The Congress suffers from the dearth of a reassuring leader, not just at the Centre but in the state as well. Chief minister Prithviraj Chavan was blamed by other Congress ministers for the debacle in the Lok Sabha elections. Therefore, the party has now started collective campaigning with Narayan Rane and Ashok Chavan providing a helping hand to the CM. These leaders launched an attack on BJP and alleged the incumbency of various things with corruption being one of them. However, why would people take Rane or Ashok Chavan’s allegations seriously is a question worth pondering.

The moot question, nonetheless, is different. On October 19, a new government will assume power. New ministers will go on board. But will this change, result in any transformation? Will the common man benefit? Will the youngsters get better job opportunities? Will the farmer stop hanging himself? Will our schools see sunny days? Will the health sector witness an upward graph? And most importantly, will the downward surge of the state be reversed? As of now, the Sena-BJP alliance seems to have no answers. This is perhaps, what is more tragic for the electorate of Maharashtra.