DNA Edit: All this war talk!

In the aftermath of the two back-to-back attacks on army camps, the Indian commentariat is divided into two camps: one is jingoistically demanding that Pakistan be made to pay for all its excesses. The only way to do so, they offer, is by waging a full-scale war. The other camp, contrarily, claims that India has more than paid back in coin by executing a fair number of surgical strikes rendering the demands for a war nothing but pitched and empty sabre-rattling.

Frankly, none of the two camps can boast of having a clear road map on the decisively dealing with Pakistan because both the sections discount facts that are material to understanding the complex history of India-Pakistan conflicts. Should India escalate its conflict with Pakistan from the extant levels of discrete cross-border actions? Yes. Can India afford to escalate its conflict with Pakistan from the extant levels of discrete cross-border actions? Sadly, no. The Indian defence ecosystem is starved for funds. The internal mechanics of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) are dilapidated and in need of an immediate and complete overhaul. Adequate funds are not allocated to the MoD or if allocated remain unutilised.

Arms procurements takes, on an average, close to seven to eight years. When a Parliamentary Standing Committee took up the matter hoping to get to the heart of the protracted delays, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the MoD kept passing the buck and blaming each other. The Indian Air Force is supposed to be operating with 45 operational squadrons but is forced to operate with just 32; even as many among them are facing the threat of becoming obsolete.

Working of all the three forces is crippled for want of key equipment and weaponry. From tanks, battleships, helicopters, submarines to even basic wherewithal like ammunition, rifles and boots are missing. Additionally, even if India wishes to escalate from the level of surgical strikes, it will have to make preparations for a two-front war. In the last two years, China has been increasing its presence in Pakistan, via the CPEC. It will seek to protect not just its investment in Pakistan but also the government and the military that keeps a tight leash on Pakistan’s mercurial non-state terror elements.

Additionally, for this year, India’s economy looks all the more shaky with the Centre setting the fiscal deficit limit at 3.5 per cent. Proponents arguing for a limited war, quite correctly, contend that proportional retaliation to Pakistan fails in establishing deterrence. They argue that the Indian government must establish, without a doubt, that it will not hesitate in escalating conflicts. This, in effect, will deter Pakistan as it has, time and again, shown that its belligerence does not match its war-time behaviour.

In 2016 after the first openly declared surgical strikes, there were fears that the Pakistani army would escalate. However, nothing of that sort was seen given that it is not in Pakistan’s economic, social or political interest to escalate the conflict. As long as India’s arsenal strength outstrips Pakistan, the latter would be discouraged from pursuing escalation as it would not like to pursue a costly war.