The reasons of withdrawal can be military of political but they need to be analysed well.
Last 48 hours have witnessed an unusual event in Kherson, historic town located on the west of the Dnipro River in Ukraine when Russian forces have withdrawn from the city and Ukrainian forces entered to occupy the same without firing a shot. Russia has been in occupation of Kherson for several months and losing Kherson means losing all hopes to move ahead towards Odessa & other western parts of Ukraine.
While western media propaganda is busy portraying this retreat as a humiliating defeat to Putin, It is not so and it is the time to analyse why Russia did it and what would be its next step. In last almost nine months of conflict, Russia has shown some really unprecedented moves which need to be taken into the light too. Like it first dispatched a long convoy towards Kyiv while at the same time intensified its momentum in Mariupol.
Similarly, it carried out surprise moves in Sumi & Kharkiv but pushed its forces down south in Severodonetsk. Russian withdrawal from Kherson without firing a single bullet can have many reasons which can be Military or political. It may also be a temporary political move to strengthen Moscow’s position in the theatre of war or it can also be a surprise move to lure Ukrainian soldiers into a costly urban warfare.
The reasons of withdrawal can be military of political but they need to be analysed well.
1. To avoid Ukrainian Counterattack -Russian forces were facing major threat from Western supplied arms especially HIMARS Rockets. Further, a big chunk of western satellites are dedicated to providing real time intelligence to Ukrainian forces which is causing further disturbances in Russian Operations. Kherson city was like an enclave surrounded by Ukrainian forces from all three sides and was very much vulnerable to any Ukrainian counterattack.They were also facing harassment from Ukrainian sabotage operations. One of the senior Russian appointed official Kirill Stremousov was reportedly killed in a car crash where the hands of Ukrainian Intelligence was suspected. Further, Russian losses in Kherson till now were rising high and it was a right decision for Russia to withdraw to the eastern shore of Dnipro River.
2. Securing Supply Lines -Dnipro River is a natural obstacle between Russian dominated Eastern Ukraine & Ukrainian dominated western part of the country and with the fact that most of the bridges were destroyed. To create a momentum to launch an attack towards Odessa would have required not only a larger force but also well-established logistics network which Russian felt that is difficult to establish under current situation. For them, it was any day better to be located at eastern shore and not to make their supply lines vulnerable. Further, in view of the coming winter months, it would have required herculean efforts to maintain their forces in Kherson so a respectful withdrawal was the only option.
3. Prepare for the upcoming Winters-As winters are approaching fast, Russian also wanted to keep its military power concentrated at one place and not to dilute them by extending the operations. Entire Ukraine witnesses’ snowfall in the winter months where communication lines are cut off, terrain and weather does not permit forces to go out and operate and at the same time, troops are vulnerable to missile/Drone attacks if not located well within an Air Defence Umbrella. Extreme weather also claims lives. Russia understands it well that next three-four months are critical to military operations and it is better to safe the soldiers rather than losing them to the extreme weather.
4. Showing will for Peace Talks -Russia may be trying to show the rest of the world by means of this withdrawal that it is ready for peace talks and has taken the first step towards it. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan who has been trying to bridge the peace talks also termed this withdrawal as “Positive & Important” in a recent statement which shows the political significance of Russians moving out of Kherson. Further, it will now prompt Kyiv to take some positive actions. Kyiv is slowly running out of the active support of western powers especially Europe since the conflict has extended unprecedently so it has to make a choice and show some positive signs too.
5. Secure Political future of the annexed territories -Russia also wants to highlight the significance of the so-calledreferendum in several oblasts of Ukraine out of which Kherson is also the one. Technically speaking, although it has officially withdrawn from Kherson city but a sizeable portion (About 60%) of this oblast is located on other side of Dnipro River and hence is under occupation of Russia. Other oblasts which have declared their will to join the Russian Federation in the referendum are Crimea (in 2014), Zaprozhia, Kherson, Donetsk & Luhansk (All in 2022). Russia wants the political future of these territories to be secured and is showing its inclination towards peace talks so that a political solution may arrive.
Withdrawal from Kherson may be a ray of light but it can also be the trigger of a larger conflict. This is the same time when G-20 countries are meeting in Indonesia & whole world is going to discuss the aftereffects of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis. Everyone wants the issues to be resolved at the earliest. Let’s hope that this event proves to be a silver lining.
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