BMC engineer floats theory for earthquake prediction

A civic engineer has questioned the tectonic plate theory used for earthquake analysis and claims he can predict quakes with a fair amount of accuracy with his formula

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A civic engineer has questioned the tectonic plate theory used for earthquake analysis and claims he can predict quakes with a fair amount of accuracy with his formula, which is based on the relative position of the sun, moon, and planets.

Amit Dave, an engineer who was recently transferred from the BMC’s disaster management cell, claims to have studied over 1,000 earthquakes and states that they are not caused by movements of the seven earth plates in different directions because of heat currents.

Instead, he claims, the gravitational pull exerted by the planets near the earth, like Jupiter, Saturn, and Venus, and their relative positions with respect to the sun and the moon, triggers quakes. He claims that the same theory can be extended to other natural disasters like hurricanes and heavy rains.

While scientists and geologists are not buying Dave’s assertions just yet, the engineer claims that by using readily available planetary positions with those of the sun and the moon, he can foretell the month, date, time, and intensity of quakes with 90% accuracy.
Though he is yet to predict the location of occurrence, he says that if he finds the resource and time to extend his theory, he would be able to do so.

Dave claims to have predicted many earthquakes in advance, including the May 12 quake in China, which measured 8.5 on the Richter scale. Among the many institutes, which are monitoring his thesis and predictions, is the United States Geological Survey (USGS), a premier research organisation on the science of the earth.

But while the organisation has responded to Dave’s emails and is monitoring the dates predicted by him, it wants Dave to pinpoint the longitude and latitude of the occurrence of such quakes. “At least give me a chance,” he appeals to fellow scientists.

Dave’s theory
The earth consists of a thin upper crust and molten lava, magma. The inner crust is semi-solid and hot. Like tidal waves, this molten lava is also influenced by tidal currents. The moment the high tide pull is more, it breaks open the crust and earthquakes occur. If the crust breaks completely, it results in a volcanic eruption.

Dave says the most potent quakes occur when the sun, Jupiter, Saturn, and the moon are in mutual potent positions like 0º, 90º, 180º, and 360º. The two planets change their direction of motion from direct to retrograde from time to time.

The gravitational pull exerted on the earth by this movement induces a change in momentum, mass and velocity of the molten lava, creating disturbances.

The date and time of occurrence of major quakes are determined by when these planets change their direction and the moon lies parallel or perpendicular to these planets and the sun.

The intensity of the quakes depends on the position of the planets relative to the sun and the moon. Citing an example, Dave says, Saturn or Jupiter changing direction on a full moon or new moon day can trigger an earthquake of intensity 6.5 on the Richter scale.
Obsession with quakes

Dave’s love affair with earthquakes and astrology began in 1993 at the time of the Latur earthquake. A believer in astrology, Dave decided to check the positions of the planets and the sun and the moon when the quake occurred. The planets were in “potent positions”. This prompted him to study other quakes, where he found the same
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