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When will COVID-19 second wave end and third wave start in India? This is what scientists have said

The second wave in India is likely to decline by July this year, while the third wave is expected to hit the country in about 6-8 months, experts say.

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According to the Department of Science and Technology under the Science Ministry of the Government of India, the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India is likely to decline by July this year, while the third wave is expected to hit the country in about six to eight months, according to a report in India Today.

Professor Manindra Agarwal from IIT Kanpur told the news channel said that phase 3 of the pandemic will be localised and won’t affect many people due to immunity from vaccination.

K VijayRaghavan, Principal Scientific Adviser, had said on May 5 that as the virus mutates further, a third wave of COVID infection is inevitable and it is necessary to be prepared for new waves. However, he also said there may not be a third wave at all if strong measures are taken and effectively implemented at the state, district and city levels.

Scientists from the Department of Science and Technology further predicted that by the end of May, India is expected to report about 1.5 lakh cases daily, and by the end of July, cases will go down to 20,000 a per day, the report mentioned. The predictions are based on SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach) model, a mathematical model that helps to project the trajectory of COVID-19.

On Thursday, M Vidyasagar, a scientist involved in the Sutra Model,  stressed the Sutra model has not predicted any third wave yet and it is working on it.

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