Modi-led NDA to get massive mandate in Bihar, says Zee News survey

A latest opinion poll has predicted a landslide victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the crucial upcoming Bihar assembly polls. In the biggest ever all-state survey, Zee News and 'Janata Ka Mood' have estimated that the NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is set to win 140 out of the total 243 seats. It is also poised in a neck-to-neck battle in another 33 seats, which can go either way in the final run. The grand secular alliance, comprising Janata Dal (U), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, and led by chief minister Nitish Kumar, is predicted to win 70 seats.

What is startling is that around 41.2 percent Muslim respondents were found rooting for the NDA alliance. It has also edge over Yadav, women, rural and urban voters. The assembly elections in state are to be held from October 12 to November 5 in five phases. The counting for the polls will be held on November 8.

The alliance between BJP and its allies – LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) of Upendra Kushwaha and former CM of Bihar, Jitan Ram Manhji's newly formed Hindustani Awaam Morcha (Secular) – is netting a vote share of around 50.8 percent. The survey shows the grand secular alliance – with just 70 seats – getting 42.5 percent of votes. Others will get only 6.7 percent of vote share.

According to the survey, there are 33 seats where the fight is going to be very close and can swing to any side.

Significantly, the survey predicts that there is hardly any polarisation of votes. The Muslim vote count between the 'Grand Alliance' and NDA shows a difference of little more than ten percent. Overall, around 41.2 percent Muslim respondents in Bihar are rooting for NDA, while 'Grand Alliance' will garner 52.4 percent.

The 'Grand Alliance' – which is banking on Yadavs – is only getting 47.5 percent of the community votes. Here BJP alliance has a slight edge, with 47.8 percent of Yadav community rooting for them. The NDA has also a clear lead among rural, urban populace and female voters in the upcoming state elections.

According to Census 2011, Bihar has 88.70 percent of rural population. Here too, the NDA has a clear cut edge over its rival. While the NDA is likely to get 51 percent of rural votes, the 'Grand Alliance' will be getting 42 percent of the rural votes. In the urban area which is just 11.30 percent of the state, NDA and the 'Grand Alliance' are likely to get 50 percent and 45 percent of votes respectively. The female voters are also inclined towards the NDA (52 percent) than the 'Grand Alliance' (40.5 percent).

Methodology: The survey was conducted on all 243 Assembly seats with a very big sample size. Conducted on September 12 and 13, a total of 31,906 respondents were surveyed on phone by Janata Ka Mood, a survey start-up by IITians with high-end analytics and technology at its core. The margin of error is 0.73 percent and confidence level is 99 percent, meaning that consistency is very-very high.