Every individual choice we make is a referendum

The Dowager Countess, Downton Abbey

First electricity, now telephones. Sometimes I feel as if I were living in an HG Wells novel."

Some changes do seem scary at first. On Thursday, we witnessed one of the most seismic referenda in world history. On Friday, markets were roiled due to the socio-economic-political uncertainties in Great Britain. We are now left searching for explanations for this seeming madness.

The immediacy and rawness of the uncertainty that we have been thrust into prevents us from finding a coherent explanation, meaning, or benefit to the verdict. It must have been the same when the partitioning of India or for that matter the split of Germany after the World War or the split of Korea must have evoked.  

Moving away from countries to our personal selves— a choice is a referendum of one. We are constantly making choices to remain or exit.

You studied hard but got rejected by the best business school. Or maybe, you met a life partner at the business school you were accepted in. Maybe you got fired, but eventually landed a much more attractive job. Adverse events could lead to favourable or adverse outcomes. You might think back and reflect upon, “what might have been” instead of “what was”. Psychologists call this as Counterfactual Reflection.

Recently my father participated in a retelling of stories from the time of Partition. It got me thinking, if it were not for Partition, would my parents have ever met? I might not like the partitioning of the country, but personally for me, if it were not for the Partition, I might not have been writing this column. At a completely different level, I am now more appreciative of the efforts and hardship for our Independence. It added a little nuance to what it meant to be…Indian.

What connects getting rejected, getting fired and the Partition?

They were three seemingly arbitrary and unrelated moments in life. When I step back, it helps me take in a big picture view of my life. But is this just me? Is it strange to have fantasies about what might have been?

Laura J Kray, Adam D Galisnky and their colleagues published a paper, titled ‘From What Might Have Been to What Must Have Been: Counterfactual Thinking Creates Meaning’. Their hypothesis was that reflecting upon and mentally undoing pivotal moments in a person’s life, like a “thrilling first encounter with a future spouse” or the “tragic loss of a loved one”, helped people appreciate the transitions in life. They asked participants to reflect upon “what would their lives be, if the pivotal experience had not occurred”?

They wanted to test if such reflection would help people understand the seeming arbitrariness of nature or just fate, rendering a greater sense of meaning to their life.

Their studies showed that when people weave together their knowledge, choices, events (failures and successes), relationships, and opportunities; they are more likely to find a certain narrative and meaning to their lives.

Upwards and Downward Counterfactuals: From Regret to relief

Downward counterfactuals are when you consider how you are better off thanks to those seemingly adverse events. You might have regrets about certain decisions or the way certain events played out. You find relief that, in reality, you are in a much better place.

Counterfactual thinking that leads you to compare how life would have been much better is called upward counterfactuals. “If I would have worked harder, I would be in a better business school, and my life would be much better”. “If I had played politics, I would have got the promotion”.

Obviously, thinking there upsides and downsides to both types of thinking. Let’s talk about the upsides of downward counterfactual thinking.

Counterfactual thinking and building identities

Kray and her researchers asked participants to write down the events that led them to join Northwestern University. Later, half the participants were asked to write about how life would have been different had they not joined Northwestern.

What they found was that participants who underwent counterfactual reflection of selecting a different path, more strongly endorsed that joining Northwestern was a defining moment in their lives as compared to the other group who did not undertake counterfactual reflections.

It built a sense of belongingness.

Counterfactual thinking and relationships

We might often take relationships for granted. In reality, people we hang out with have a great impact on our lives. I can easily attribute my love for travelling, humour, love of rock music, food and debating to my college mates. Without friends, perhaps, I might have scored better marks, but life would have been rather… dry.

I can relate the importance of physical fitness to the death, illnesses, and injuries of loved ones. I can relate my importance of hard work to both my set of parents and siblings. I can relate my need to reach my workplace earlier than usual to a particular role model.

Minkyung Koo and Daniel Gilbert established that when you subtract the good things in life, it increases your satisfaction with these good things that you took for granted. Koo and Kray’s research concluded that when you mentally subtracted significant partners or good friends from your life, you realised the importance they hold in your life, which in turn improved the commitment to your relationships.

Counterfactual thinking and “it was meant to be”

Human beings need an explanation to everything that happens. Some people might call it fate. Some might call it the act of an unknown force. Some would say it is an act of God.

When people can see that their lives as exactly, as the way it was meant to be, it increases their gratification that they are on the right path. It gives them additional vigour to drive down their chosen path, with a knowledge that their life is unfolding exactly the way it is meant to.

But then does counterfactual thinking work at a country and company level?

Every single time I see the movie Gandhi, I get a sense of pride. Reliving the events of the Dandi March, the Civil Disobedience, and Swarajya, helps me reaffirm my citizenship.  

Hal Hershfeld led another set of studies to research the impact of counterfactuals in patriotism and organisational commitment. He found that undertaking counterfactual thinking helped increase the patriotism. Try this for yourself.

Consider, how would the country have been shaped differently, if we did not have these historical figures shaping seemingly small events that would cause seismic shifts in the subcontinent?

Hershfeld conducted studies on the perceptions related to the history of an organisation. They found that thinking how the organisation could have turned out to be very different increases their commitment and hopes for the success of an organisation. They even found that when you reflected on key colleagues and business contacts and how they would come to shape your latter lives, it strengthens the personal bonds.

I dare say, if it was not for the endorsement of my ex-colleagues, my company would be performing at a fraction of what it is today.

Counterfactual thinking – From Failure to Higher Performance

The upside to upward counterfactuals: Upward counterfactual is when you reflect on how better your life might have been if you had not been fired?

While that might make you feel really miserable, you might seek to find out what led to you to lose your job and then take corrective action. You might want to add certain skills, ranging from being politically astute to learning digital marketing or business analytics.

You might feel miserable because you were rejected because you were overweight, but then you could hit the gym and maybe even adopt fitness as a value.

The downside to downward counterfactuals: Finding meaning and benefits can also be the reason why some people continue to be in an abusive relationship. They might build an unrealistic “rosy picture” of their future. Being a staunch supporter of an organisation, some might not confront the reality with their Board of Directors, in order to not “shake the boat”.

A choice we make is actually a referendum of one.

The random brush strokes and splotches of paint represent our choices. Our events, circumstances, responses, and relationships are what make up our identity. Events, which seem seismic in nature, might turn out for the better. Undertaking a rational counterfactual reflection can help assign a deeper meaning to daily struggles.

Our entire day goes in participating in these referendums— at home, at work. We might be better served if we participate in every referendum that comes our way keeping in mind the impact— on ourselves, on others around us and the on entire ecosystem.  After all, remaining or exiting is a choice that we have to live with.

You can start a personal diary and reflect upon the connection between what might have been and what was meant to be.

The author is the Founder of The Positivity Company, where he helps business leaders become more positive and productive. Birender can be reached on birender.ahluwalia@gmail.com.