Australia are dark horses at 2011 World Cup

The World Cup is almost here and reams have been written about the favourites, impact players and all that. Guesswork and speculation are best exhibited in the cricketing world every four years. Well, I have also decided to make my set of predictions.

Firstly, I refuse to believe that there are clear favourites this time. All you diehard India fans would beg to differ, but the Men in Blue need to address a few issues right away. We’ll discuss that a little later. Secondly, Australia — who have never tasted defeat in the quadrennial showpiece since that loss to Pakistan in the early stages of the 1999 edition in England — may be chasing their fourth straight title, but it would be risky to bet on them.

So basically, this is the most open World Cup in recent times. I clearly remember the mood prior to and during the 1996 World Cup. Quite a few teams, including India, were looking good. There was intense competition and Sri Lanka eventually won the coveted trophy. Things were somewhat similar in 1999 too. Now recall the sequence of events in 2003 and 2007. Australia were favourites prior to and during the tournament and, well, they delivered in style on both occasions.

I must, however, say that the subcontinent powerhouses — Sri Lanka, Pakistan and, of course, India have a distinct advantage as they will be playing in familiar surroundings. And that makes a huge difference in a tournament like the World Cup.

Let’s discuss Sri Lanka’s chances first. At the outset, I must say they have the best bowling attack. Lasith Malinga, Muttiah Muralitharan and Angelo Mathews can be very, very dangerous. And remember the Lankans are playing most of their games at the R Premadasa Stadium in Colombo, their most favourite and luckiest venue. Kumar Sangakkara is a level-headed skipper and he knows how to manage his resources. And in case he falls short of ideas, Mahela Jayawardene, who led Lanka to the final in 2007, will always be there to help Sanga. Don’t forget Tillakaratne Dilshan either. He’s one of the most explosive openers around.

His catching, diving and throwing can turn a game on its head. What more can you ask for!

Can you imagine an Indian side without Zaheer Khan and Ashish Nehra? Well, Pakistan will miss Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Aamer but despite that, their bowling attack looks formidable.

Umar Gul, Wahab Riaz, Shoaib Akhtar can all win matches single handedly. Abdul Razzaq, Shahid Afridi and Saeed Ajmal are no pushovers either. Their batting will revolve around Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq, but the Akmal brothers — Kamran and Umar — are as dangerous as they come.

Also remember that Pakistan have gone through a lot in the recent past. And they will be desperately hungry to prove a point. Always expect a wounded tiger to strike back. The Indian side is good, no doubt. But like I said earlier, there are issues that are crying for attention. Firstly, we can’t afford any more fitness problems. We just lost Praveen Kumar. S Sreesanth is the best replacement, but what happens if Zaheer Khan or some other bowler goes out? I don’t want to even imagine. Indians don’t boast of a great fielding unit either. They have to somehow get their act together.

Like 2003, our strength is our batting. The toss-up is between Suresh Raina and Virat Kohli and I think the team management should go in with Raina at least in the early stages of the tournament. Well, if the southpaw ceases to perform, Kohli will get his chance. Yusuf Pathan’s pyrotechnics at No 6 could be crucial. Not many teams have a batsman of such calibre lower down the order. When Pathan is around, no bowling attack can afford to relax. And yes, no target is daunting.

I believe Australia are the dark horses. I seriously do. They are anything but favourites this time. They don’t have the players who won them three straight trophies. Their in-form player, Michael Hussey, has been ruled out. But they are perfect candidates for the ‘dark horse’ tag because they know what it takes to win at the world stage. They believe in themselves and, most importantly, they have struck form by demolishing England 6-1 in the recent ODI series.

South Africa, New Zealand and the West Indies don’t boast of a great record in the subcontinent, but you never know in cricket. Bangladesh will upset a few teams — hope India don’t fall prey like they did in 2007 — because they are playing a lot of games at home. The short boundaries and small grounds suit the Asian style of play. But I still maintain that it could be anybody’s Cup.