World Cup 2015: Get set for a thrilling second half of the tournament

Proponents of chaos theory, who staunchly gyrate around how much of a flux the normal is in, would be smiling away looking at the World Cup results. Proponents of the bat-first, score 300 and bag the win theory, and its corollary – the chase under lights and win theory, would be eating their parchments. The fans of the ‘glorious uncertainties’ cliché are a satisfied bunch – that is all that matters. 

We have are mid-way to the distance to 29th March. Apart from the expected and yet heartening displays of batting and bowling from the usual suspects, the tournament has also thrown up charming performances and held onto the glorious uncertainties. A team with the best batting line-up couldn’t chase 300-odd against a supposedly very average bowling attack – but managed to pull their socks and how, the next time around – by scoring the first 400 plus score of this tournament. Then, they stumbled against Pakistan, committing hara-kiri chasing a total that should have been a walk in the park.

We in India don’t talk about the 2007 World Cup – but India had crossed 400 in defeating Bermuda back then. Just goes to show that, two World Cups hence – 400 is still an anomaly, but nothing is a par score considering Ireland’s chasing down of 305 against the West Indies. For all the talk about the dearth of fielders outside the circle and the pacey, bouncy wickets touting this World Cup to be a bowler’s World Cup – the pitches weren’t supposed to be so easy on the willow. How easy? Way easy! Zimbabwe have twice managed to outdo their own expectations and push the regression line upwards. Look at Shikhar Dhawan’s tally, he who couldn’t buy a run for the longest time! Sri Lanka, or rather those two gorgeous batsmen of theirs have sneaked in a couple of hundreds chasing 300 plus scores. 

Australia, who have had pretty much a stop-n-start tournament got ‘Boult-ed’ on a ground with the shortest boundaries. But trust the Aussies to fight it out to their last breath in lost causes – oh what a match! Everyone wants 300-plus scores, but those two teams showed that the art of pace bowling is alive and in very good hands. If it weren’t for the audacious start by McCullum – that guy who is unfazed by reputations, bounce and swing – Australia would have won it. McCullum has been instrumental in making New Zealand take the tag of favourites like it was a part of their body. 

The tag of ‘defending champions’ too, which was assumed to be worn and raggedy too looks polished and mended. India it seems were playing Houdini for the last three months. India are playing old school cricket with dexterity never seen before, hence is difficult for the opposition to decipher. The fielding has been quite superb with a catching conversion of 95% before the match against the West Indies. At Perth, rather in these four matches, India has wiped off decades of tears of fans crying for bowlers like Shami, Yadav and Mohit bowling in tandem. The big fat batting line-up did wobble against a spirited Carribean attack mentored by Ambrose, but then the powers that be decided it was time for MSD to just prove his worth in gold (A batting average of 105 in successful chases). Guiding his team to a victory with guile, MSD for the umpteenth time silenced the noise about his form. 

A lot of teams have been found struggling in chases, even if it was against an all-powerful Aussie attack, New Zealand ought not to have struggled as much as they did getting there. South-Africa were surgically treated by a very obedient Indian bowling, then outdone in a 'shootout' by belligerent Pakistan. It is not that lights or dew are causing too many a problem. It classically is boiling down to batsmen applying themselves. Even in the times of four fielders outside the ring and drop-in pitches, one still needs a good back-foot game and excellent running between the wickets. The use of different balls from either end is helping bowlers – but that also means that reverse swing is a factor doubly late than before.

Sri Lanka are doing it albeit against weaker opposition, New Zealand didn’t need to go beyond the halfway mark of their innings and nor did India. Pakistan have rarely been able to do it in recent history. England shouldn’t even attempt. Sammy and Maxwell haven’t been tested as yet. India, who under MS Dhoni and thanks to that man Kolhi who has been consuming targets for dinner – have found love, comfort and peace at chasing over the years. But this time they are very cautiously not going that way just yet. This too looks like a trick – maybe a passive-aggressive one. MS Dhoni is well aware that he has a limited bowling attack, which might push a couple of notches above not more. Towards the business end of the tournament, with batsmen having found their groove, this attack might not be able to perform as it is promising to do so now. That is when he hopes the big, fat batting line-up will be primed to deliver. 

Chasing was never rocket science, it is modern art amalgamating in stealth mode – a painter or a sculptor who knows what he wants to achieve at the end of a long arduous process – of painstakingly chipping and stroking away.

A few numbers, to buttress the arguments, should put things in perspective. Since the start of 2011, till the 1st of March, there have been 269 successful chases by all teams (including associates but excluding chases against associates). On being asked to chase, Australia (19), India (18), Sri-Lanka (21) and Pakistan (14) sit tall in this list. This possibly means that these teams have been good at chasing. The numbers swivel a great deal, i.e. when chasing is an outcome of strategy. Australia has four, Pakistan eight and Sri-Lanka has eleven. India zooms past the lot with sixteen.

In the group stage too, apart from the predictable results, it isn’t as black and white, there have been successful chases under lights and defences of targets too – by teams that have gauged the conditions well and applied themselves. India have a very below average run rate in the first powerplay, but by mid-innings they have been in commanding positions which enables smooth acceleration. Enough has not been written about the Indian bowling which has been clinical in defence of targets. We cannot overlook the fact that the targets were indeed stiff, but they weren’t untameable either.

Australia and South Africa should be able to pull up their performances because, simply, they are top sides with great work ethic and talent. But their loss to Pakistan has complicated matters - for Ireland. Ireland now need to beat Zimbabwe by at least 69 runs, hope West Indies don't exactly savage UAE, and then hold India and/or Pakistan to not-so-large wins.

In Pool A, Australia Sri-Lanka will be a key encounter for the quarter final line up. Australia find themselves in unfamiliar territory and equally unexpected position. England, if wish to be taken seriously and have some self-respect should be looking for a domineering win against Bangladesh. 

It remains to be seen, if the apparent long run is a short run and vice a versa, with the Indian bowling and AB DeVilliers’ batting. Will New Zealand be able to sustain their performance for another five matches? Will Australia find their mojo? Will the predictably unpredictable Pakistan conjure yet another magical performance? Will Mahela-Sanga have a dream swansong which they truly deserve? Steyn is bound to hit his stride soon, so are Anderson and Mitch. They have been top bowlers for a long time. McCullum will have a bad day or two. Do New Zealand have someone who will step up?

For all the talk about the ten team tournament versus the case for Associates, the World Cup is a marquee tournament which should have the best performances – it is in the offing. We have a mouth-watering, nail biting few weeks ahead. Mauka toh sabko milega – who will grab it like the best slip fielder is what awaits.