Scientists reveal improved techniques for predicting volcanic eruptions

An international team of geophysicists from the universities of Leeds, Purdue, Indiana and Addis Ababa has discovered better techniques to pinpoint where volcanic eruptions are likely to occur.

"Until now, our knowledge of volcanic events has been based on isolated cases," Nature quoted Dr Ian Hamling, lead author of the paper, as saying.

"We have demonstrated that volcanic eruptions can influence each other. This will help us in predicting where future volcanic eruptions are likely to happen."

The team studied the region around a large volcanic dyke — a vertical crack, which is created when magma seeps from underground through rifts in the surface of the earth.

The magma altered the tension of the earth, and by monitoring levels of tension in the ground, at sites where each dyke was intruded, they found that subsequent eruptions were more likely in places where the tension increases.

"If you look at this year's eruptions at Ejafjallajokull in Iceland, by estimating the tension in the crust at other volcanoes nearby, you can estimate whether the likelihood of eruptions inside them has increased or decreased," said Hamling.

"Knowing the state of stress in this way won't tell you when an eruption will happen, but will give a better idea of where it is most likely to occur."

The findings were published in Nature Geoscience.