Swine flu vaccine will take at least a year

Mounting toll due to swine flu is keeping governments and health agencies on their toes across the world as scientists are trying to understand if the deadly strain can be contained by existing drugs in the market.

Roche, with its Tamiflu and GlaxoSmithKline Pharma with Relenza have mobilised production of the two drugs to meet the spurt in demand but there is no clarity yet on the extent these drugs can be used.

There are others who are looking at new data for doing fresh research to see how the outbreak can be controlled before it assumes unmanageable proportions.

According to Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in the US (CDC), laboratory tests found the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir and has issued interim guidance for the use of these drugs to treat and prevent infection with swine influenza viruses.

Some international agencies have reported that the flu’s spread in the US and Canada is heightening concern that the virus may spark the world’s first influenza pandemic in forty years after the 1968 Hong Kong flu outbreak.

That pandemic killed more than a million and if modern day drugs fail to control the spread of this virus, it will only show poorly on the claims of advances made in medical sciences and the lack of government induced safety measures.

By any scientific measure, it is very tough to develop a vaccine that can fight the ever-changing strains of new viruses in a short time.

Even if concerted and war-footing efforts are taken to develop an effective vaccine through international collaborations, the drug can be ready in no less than a year’s time, and that is a very very ambitious time line. By that time, it may be too late if the virus multiplies with the current day ferocity.

All that the CDC can do in the interim is to issue travel warnings and ensure that the likelihood of human to human infection is kept under tight control.

The authority has said, “CDC is working very closely with officials in states where human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) have been identified, as well as with health officials in Mexico, Canada and the World Health Organisation.

This includes deploying staff domestically and internationally to provide guidance and technical support. CDC has activated its Emergency Operations Center to coordinate this investigation.

The extent of seriousness comes out clear in the statement as it adds, “CDC also has prepared interim guidance on how to care for people who are sick and interim guidance on the use of face masks in a community setting where spread of this swine flu virus has been detected. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide new information as it becomes available.”

In all the panic around, India is perceived to be in a far better position in handling the disease. Drug maker Cipla has volunteered supplies of the generic forms of oseltamivir to cope up with any eventuality. The government, on its part, has spoken about enough checks on people traveling from flu-affected nations like Mexico besides stock piling the drug.

Like in the 2005-06 avian flu crisis, the Indian health authorities are expected to work in an emergency mode.

Directives from health officials led to culling of thousands of farm birds but that was not enough as new cases were still detected. Fortunately, the intensity of the virus slowed down and prevention could be possible before conditions worsened.

But the threat is real in case the virus does find a gap and enters India. The vast and the dense population in India could be the best condition for the virus to find new hosts and multiply to an unimaginable proportion. It could be assume disastrous limits and so the need to be extremely alert.

Lessons are to be learnt from the way U.S. is handling the current health crisis. The US FDA has already issued the Emergency Use Authorisations to make available important diagnostic and therapeutic tools to identify and respond to the swine flu virus under certain conditions.

Pillman is an executive closely linked to the global pharma industry.