The bitter end

The war in Sri Lanka is over — it was won once Kilinochchi, the administrative capital of the LTTE, fell nearly four months ago. But yet the war goes on, President Mahinda Rajapakse having pledged to liberate every inch of territory and annihilate the Tigers, whatever the cost.

The most brutal and tragic fallout of this war is the humanitarian catastrophe inflicted on the non-combatant Tamils in the conflict zone where nearly 1 million have been displaced, several hundred killed and thousands wounded and the living sent to virtual internment camps that are bereft of basics.

International appeals, the loudest from New Delhi and Chennai for a ceasefire have been ignored by Colombo on the cusp of a historic military victory and equally a gigantic humanitarian disaster. With elections round the corner in Tamil Nadu, politicians have been reawakened to their impotence to ‘save the Tamil race’.

Political parties of all hues are calling for ending the war immediately. Embroiled in the elections, New Delhi has not been firm enough to persuade the Rajapakse government to exercise greater restraint and a humanitarian ceasefire which will allow aid agencies to attend to the sufferings of civilians trapped in the war.

But how could it? The United Progressive Alliance government has firmly backed the war, even demanding Prabhakaran’s extradition. Any appeal for ceasefire will be tantamount to letting the LTTE off the hook as in 1987. Judging correctly the mood in Tamil Nadu, where 13 deaths due to self immolation have taken place in recent months, Rajapakse is planning to send a special envoy, his brother Basil, for the second time this year to soothe India on the Tamil question. It also gives time to wrap up the military offensive, hopefully with Prabhakaran in the bag.

Sri Lanka drew a deft distinction between ‘our own people’, civilian Tamils, and ‘terrorists’, the LTTE and couched the war not as an ethnic conflict but a fight against terrorism. By not allowing the physical separation of civilians from the battleground, Prabhakaran has blurred that distinction by intermingling combatants with civilians and employing them as human shields. They are boxed into a sliver of an exposed beachhead from where escape is impossible except for some civilians who are
crossing into liberated territory.

So why is the Sri Lanka government reluctant to order a ceasefire when 99 per cent of territory has been retaken, 70 per cent of the weapons captured, Tiger Air Force and Navy destroyed and just a few hundred fighters left gasping for breath? For Sri Lanka, Prabhakaran dead or alive is the ultimate prize.

Operation Final Countdown, the world’s largest rescue mission, was to have been completed by the Sinhala and Tamil New Year on April 14. Operational glitches delayed the final assault and instead Rajapakse declared a 48-hour humanitarian pause to appease the international community and India.

The aim of the operation is to separate civilians from the LTTE in the no-fire zone (NFZ) and go for the Tigers. The rescue mission is backed by 12,000 soldiers in an outer ring and 4000 closer in, locking the quarry. The operation is being monitored by unarmed aerial vehicles and fixed wing aircraft. An estimated 500 LTTE are mixed up with 50,000 civilians.

What we are witnessing in the NFZ is a game of brinkmanship between Rajapakse and Prabhakaran employing fire power and psy war risking the lives of civilians which according to UN officials makes both parties vulnerable to charges of war crimes.

Rajapakse wants to know why no one is asking LTTE to release civilians instead of demanding a ceasefire. In a non-binding resolution the United Nations has asked both sides to exercise restraint and the LTTE to let civilians go. Rajapakse will not end the war till Prabhakaran is taken and has three options for him: surrender, pop a cyanide
capsule or jump into the sea.

Surrender is most unlikely. LTTE will fight till the bitter end buying time hoping the spectre of a civilian massacre and international opprobrium will restrain Rajapakse into declaring a cease fire and a more dignified exit for them.

With the final outcome never in doubt, the war has got sharply focused on the humanitarian angle, a contingency that the Rajapakse government had brushed aside, confident of managing it when that moment came. Delays in the operational time table and elections in India, especially Tamil Nadu have acted as spoilers.

With India party to the war, little good will come from demanding a ceasefire at this stage though military experts say that with the overwhelming strategic advantage enjoyed by Sri Lanka, it can make a final humanitarian gesture. In the mean time, we can expect more shiploads for food and medicines, more bed for the Indian Military Hospital in Pulumoddai and expression of deep concern for the safety and security of Sri Lankan Tamils.