Policy reboot

I am announcing a comprehensive, new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan” was the opening line of the much awaited Barack Obama speech on Friday. A preliminary review of the six-page text suggests that while the speech is earnest and eloquent — twin traits of Obama’s articulation — it is not as comprehensive or new as one had hoped for.

Yet, like the proverbial curate’s egg, it is good in parts. While the more positive aspects (from the Indian perspective) are encouraging, the missing elements in the Obama formulation are equally important.

The more significant part of the Obama speech is that it provides some degree of clarity about US aims and objectives in the Bush led global war on terror (GWOT) after 9/11. The US has been bled both literally and metaphorically over the last seven years in its military overstretch and has lost 700 lives in Afghanistan alone — the total number of all the killed and wounded runs into the thousands. Concurrently the US has spent billions of dollars and is now facing its gravest fiscal crisis since the Great depression of the 1930’s.

The objective of the US effort has been clearly stated: “We have a clear and focused goal —  to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future……to the terrorists who oppose us, my message is the same: we will defeat you.” This mission statement is unambiguous and one may infer that the current US military operations that began in late 2001 now have the stamp of ownership by the Obama administration. 

Obama makes an important linkage when he observes that: “We must recognise the fundamental connection between the future of Afghanistan and Pakistan”. It would have perhaps been more accurate and appropriate to link the future of Afghanistan with the chequered “past” of Pakistan and the manner in which the mujahideen and the Taliban were both created and nurtured by the Pakistani military establishment — ironically with US support.

Yet the nuance and emphasis in relation to current US policy towards Pakistan is to be welcomed, given the very negative influence that Washington DC has had over the decades in eroding democracy in that country by standing squarely behind the Pak military since October 1958.

Noting that “the US has great respect for the people of Pakistan”, Obama asserted that the financial resources now being allocated to Islamabad would be used to “strengthen Pakistan’s democracy.”

While this is a highly desirable exigency —  and the recent Nawaz Sharif ‘long march’ victory is case in point — it is not clear how Obama proposes to translate this intent into reality. The pattern of events over the last three years going back to the waning phase of the Musharraf’s rule indicate that the Pak military,  while projecting itself as being an ally of the US in the war against terror has also been playing a dangerous double-game.

Recent media reports irrefutably establish the manner in which US funds have been used to tacitly support the various terrorist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan — in short, the US has been taken for a ride. But the Pak military is the elephant in the drawing room in the Obama speech and is glossed over.

The speech also takes a swipe at the Bush administration and cautions that in relation to previous policies “the days of unaccountable spending, no-bid contracts and wasteful reconstruction must end” and the funds allocated for Pakistan will go towards building schools, roads and hospitals. Again, this is a commendable initiative and it remains to be seen a year from now as to what additional social capacity has been created for the people of Pakistan.

There are two references to India in the Obama speech — one in relation to the familiar ‘South Asian nuclear neighbours’ and the other about including India in the Contact Group for Af-Pak. While the former formulation is reminiscent of the Clinton years that dwelt on South Asia as a nuclear flashpoint and caused some dismay in India, the unstated linkage should be monitored in the months ahead. The Pak military has long sought to link regional nuclear stability, Kashmir and the terrorism phenomenon, which India has sought to refute.

Experts like Ahmed Rashid have been explicit in this matter and it is understood that the Obama team has been influenced by it. If the encounter with the LeT in Kupwara is any indication, it would be reasonable to infer that the Pak military will pursue this strategic objective with the Obama administration. This will pose a challenge to India and here India’s inclusion in the Contact Group offers valuable possibilities.

Pakistan is at the core of the current challenge to regional and global stability and it is encouraging that the Obama speech recognises this. But a new policy is a work in progress and must be monitored objectively and dispassionately.

The writer is an analyst on strategic affairs