Pragmatists all

TIt is called hedging bets. CPM general secretary Prakash Karat who has been quite pro-active in forging a non-Congress, non-BJP political formation is not willing to call it a Third Front because no alliance has been formalised. Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati and prime claimant to the prime minister’s post had said that talks over an alliance can only come up after the election. The same stance has been taken by Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal, which had walked out of the BJP-led NDA, but showed initial reluctance to join hands with the new formation. And Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK supremo, whose absence at the dinner at Mayawati’s house was interpreted as a rebuff is now making soothing noises. Nobody wants to take a chance of offending anyone and yet no one wants to show their hand completely.

What does this indicate? While it is clear that smaller political parties are not averse to leaving the alliances led by the Congress and the BJP, they are not yet ready to crystallise into a formation of their own.

Too much enthusiasm and commitment to the Front — call it what you will — could stymie any future alignments with a national party should it do well in the elections. Yet, not joining in at this stage may result in doors shutting at a later date. The regionals want a shot at power and they realise that their numbers will be necessary.

The position of Mayawati, Patnaik, Jayalalithaa and others is that the next coalition can be decided after the polls, and it is to be based on the number of seats each would have garnered.

Whatever may be the other shortcomings, the smaller political parties and their leaders are clear headed. Mayawati is the clearest thinker of them all. She knows that she is sitting pretty and doesn’t need anyone’s support; if anything, they
need her.

She has the numbers beyond her immediate state and if the BSP does well, she has a shot for the top job, no matter who wins. Which is why she sat like queen bee while the others flocked to her.

The first step in this political process is a realistic assessment of what one is worth in terms of electoral strength. At the same time, it is important to keep all options open, which is what the smaller parties have begun doing, whether they want to call it the third front or not.