Grounded before take-off

With the Congress and the BJP in steady decline (their combined vote share and Lok Sabha seat tally have dipped with every election since the start of the coalition era in the nineties), it would be naïve to write off the Third Front before what threatens to be another scrappy general election.

But last week, the prospects for the emergence of a non-Congress, non-BJP national alternative looked pretty dim despite TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu's frenetic efforts to drum up a show of unity by the regional parties.

After three days of hectic meetings across the political spectrum, Naidu's big press conference on Friday turned out to be no more than an Andhra whimper with regional leaders from other states doing a no-show.

The biggest blow was the absence of JD(S) chief Deve Gowda and AIADMK boss Jayalalithaa who were both wooed assiduously by CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat and Naidu to consolidate the Third Front's southern flank. They had promised to come but didn't because it now turns out that the Congress is courting them with equal ardour in an effort to kill the bogey bear before it becomes a real threat.

Naidu and his Left pals Sitaram Yechury and A B Bardhan looked resigned to the fact that the Congress party has a higher attraction quotient for Gowda and Jaya. In Karnataka, a Congress-JD(S) combine would make a formidable opponent to the BJP while in Tamil Nadu, a Congress-AIADMK-PMK alliance could totally rout the DMK. There's an added sweetener for Jaya. If the Congress and PMK join hands with her, Karunanidhi's minority government in Chennai will fall, paving the way for simultaneous assembly polls with the Lok Sabha elections.

It's this that prompted Jaya to take the risk of offending the Left with her startling public appeal to the Congress to ally with her. Although Sonia Gandhi is said to be reluctant to switch partners before the elections, she faces a hard choice. She could stay with the DMK and sink with Karunanidhi or she could be opportunistic and jump ship to join the winning side.

According to Congress circles, Rahul Gandhi has advised his mother to be pragmatic, that the party needs as many seats as it can get. But those who know Sonia Gandhi say she plays a straight bat and is unlikely to dump a friend of five years. Still, the option remains open. Pranab Mukherjee is believed to have been in touch with Jaya, indicating that the Congress has not made up its mind yet.

With the Third Front spluttering, the Left too has hard choices to make. If Jaya and the Congress join forces in Tamil Nadu, the Left-AIADMK alliance that Karat sewed up with a bouquet of flowers will fall apart. Will the Left make up with the DMK then? Everything is possible when politics gets divorced from ideology and becomes nothing more than a power game. But don't rule out the Third Front.

As someone commented after Naidu's press conference, everything depends on the election result. If the Congress and BJP together fail to cross the 250 mark, then the Third Front will be assembled in the blink of an eye.

TAILPIECE
Congress circles have been buzzing ever since Sonia Gandhi was seen sharing a friendly moment with Pranab Mukherjee in the Lok Sabha on budget day. It happened when Mukherjee turned a trifle pale as he was reading his speech because of a fall in blood sugar.

Aware of his medical problem, Gandhi scribbled a solicitous note offering to send for a Cadbury chocolate. He had one in his pocket, Mukherjee informed her, and had eaten it. The whole bar, she inquired in amazement. Just half, he smiled back as she enjoyed a quiet laugh. Kuch meetha ho jaye?