Power flows from the barrel of GDP

India’s economic growth after liberalisation prompted a revaluation of its place in the world, and the NSG waiver is an acknowledgement of this new equation, writes strategic analyst K Subrahmanyam

 With the NSG waiver, India becomes the sole nuclear weapon power which is not a signatory of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but still permitted to conduct nuclear commerce and technology transfer with other NPT signatories. This special status for India is the result of the efforts of the US supported by Russia, France, UK and Germany. Those who formulated the NPT and founded the London Club, the predecessor of NSG, directed against India after the 1974 Pokhran Test, have themselves moved to provide India the unique waiver. Why?

In the 1970s, India was not looked upon as a major actor in the world.  The impression abroad was some pressure on India would work. At the same time, China-Pakistan nuclear proliferation was overlooked as Pakistan was needed as an ally in the Mujahideen war against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. The US applied pressure on India during 1983 and 1995 to thwart nuclear tests.

All this changed in the `90s. With economic liberalisation, India’s growth rate climbed to 6 per cent. By 1998, Prime Minister Vajpayee could conduct a nuclear test. India had launched a number of PSLV satellites and designed its own military missiles. Its IT prowess had won world acclaim. There was recognition that this India was on its way to becoming a trillion dollar class economy and fourth or fifth market in the world. More than that, there was an assessment that India will have the largest, youngest skilled labour force in the world, which will make an impact on the globalised economy. The contributions of the NRI community and other Indian entities to US R&D also generated a favourable image of India in the US and the West.

The US made a major revaluation in its global strategy in early 2005. It decided to help build India as a major power in the 21st century. This followed the US recognition that India is now one of the six members in the balance of power along with the US, China, the European Union, Japan, and Russia. This recognition impelled the US, the EU and Russia to push strongly for NSG waiver. India has now strategic partnerships with the US, EU and Russia.

China is somewhat ambivalent on India’s emergence as a power. This has no military significance since, as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice pointed out, “For the first time since the peace of Westphalia in 1648, the prospect of violent conflict between great powers is becoming ever more unthinkable.”

China had been attempting to countervail India by arming Pakistan with nuclear weapons and missiles. China does not favour the acknowledgement of India as one of the balancers of power.

Israel, India and Pakistan are the only three countries outside the NPT. Israel is not interested in civil nuclear commerce. India is now being given the unique waiver from NSG guidelines. When Pakistan raised this issue, US President George Bush answered in front of international TV cameras that Pakistan was a different country, had different needs and had a different history. That was a reference to Pakistan’s record as a proliferator.

The NSG waiver is not only a liberation of India from technology apartheid but also from hyphenation of the Indo-Pakistan equation in which China has an interest.

— K Subrahmanyam is a strategic analyst, author and former civil servant
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