The Mayawati matrix

If VP Singh did not exist, he would have to be invented, it used to be said about the former prime minister of India. As the man who quit Rajiv Gandhi’s government, apparently on a point of political principle, Singh became the lightning rod to attract anti-Congress forces from the right and from the left.

His Janata Dal first brought in regional parties like the TDP and the DMK and created the National Front; with the support of the BJP and the Left, it formed the government in 1989.

In 1984, faced with the Rajiv Gandhi wave, the BJP got only 2 seats in Parliament; in 1989, their alignment with Singh helped them get 85. Soon after, L K Advani launched the Rath Yatra, the Babri Masjid came down, and the BJP emerged as a strong political player, eventually forming the government at the centre. Singh, as we know, implemented the Mandal Commisson recommendations, which directly led to caste conflicts and the emergence of strong, casteist parties. It did not help him however, since he eventually lost his government. But he did come in handy for the BJP and many other parties.

Something similar is happening now with Mayawati. She has emerged as the fulcrum of anti-Congress, anti-BJP forces. A motley crew of regional groupings as well as the Left parties is rallying around her, even propping her as a future prime minister. The hurried effort at the time of the trust vote was only a dress rehearsal; there was no real chance that the government would fall or that the Mayawati-Left combine would get a chance to stake any claim; the real battle will come in the next elections.

There are differences between Singh and Maywati of course. The former had experience at the highest levels of government at the centre; he was a die-hard Congressman who had rebelled and left the party; his own direct electoral base was not very wide.

Mayawati on the other hand, is still only a chief minister but she has her own party and her own very strongly loyal following-in UP and elsewhere and she can bring a lot to the table. Dalits see in her an icon who can better their lot. Already she has shown the capacity to form social coalitions and has given sleepless nights to other parties not only in UP but elsewhere. Clearly, she is a woman with a bright political future.

Riding on her bandwagon can be a fruitful exercise for other political parties. The Prakash Karat Left, now in a viscerally anti-Congress mood, sees in her their one chance to fight the UPA and eventually bring it down.

To reach his goal, Karat will stop at nothing, including sacking one of the CPM’s most loyal soldiers, Somnath Chatterjee. Tying up with Mayawati, who was till the other day a political enemy, is part of that overall strategic objective. Besides, with an earlier friend Mulayam Singh no longer with the Left, there is nobody else left to join hands with. Besides, supporting a leader of the downtrodden Dalits fits in well with the Left’s overall ideological framework.

The Left will be able to convince at least a few regional parties to hop on to the bandwagon. The Deve Gowdas, Ajit Singhs and even Chandrababu Naidus, all without much chance of reaching Delhi single-handedly see no alternative to being in the Mayawati camp, especially since the BJP is looking increasingly weak. As a bonus, she might also help them with Dalit votes in their respective states.

But Mayawati has other charms too. The liberal urban intelligentsia, which has always harboured a disdain for the Congress and for the BJP, finds her a suitable third option. As a Dalit leader, she is the liberals’ delight, somewhat like Barack Obama is for the white liberal in the US. Through her, they can exorcise their guilt; supporting her gives a nice, warm glow. Since this liberal constituency is well entrenched in the media, she gets a glowing press most of the time.

Thus, they are ready to forgive her all her trespasses and have a ready answer for all the charges against her. Corrupt? So what, so are all the others. Extravagant? Yes, but why does no one point fingers at other politicians? Capricious? Well, why shouldn’t she be. Untried as an administrator? Give her a chance. It is almost as if criticising her is heresy and making fun of her a sin, to say nothing of upper caste bias.

The time will come when her various omissions and commissions will become impossible to ignore and she will be treated like any other politician. Singh, once the great white hope, is a reviled man today; his one act of unleashing OBC forces disillusioned his closest followers.

But before Mayawati can be examined for what she is rather than what she represents, she might be propelled into the prime minister’s chair. That is the hope and dream of not only the millions of Dalits of the country but also of a most unlikely bunch of fellow travelers a politician can ever have.

Email: sidharth01@dnaindia.net