Year-end polls: the BJP’s task is cut out

NE WDELHI: Banking on anti-incumbency in Delhi and fighting it in the three other states going to polls this year-end, the BJP has its task cut out. To its credit, it does not seem to be in as bad a condition as it appeared to be until recently.

Delhi and Chhattisgarh are the party’s best bet. In Delhi, its victory in municipal polls shows disenchantment with the Congress. Development is not a factor in the capital, resentment over sealing and demolition of unauthorised constructions is. Carried out under a supreme court directive, it earned people’s wrath for the Congress government.
The BJP was quick to take up the issue, accusing the Sheila Dikshit government of mismanagement. The Congress, on the other hand, failed to channelise people’s anger against the BJP, which now controls the municipal corporation and is carrying out the court orders.

All this apart, the BJP has other issues to sort out as well, not the least being the question of leadership. There were moves to rope in general secretary Arun Jaitley as the chief ministerial candidate for Delhi, but he refused.

Madan Lal Khurana, the prodigal son, has been made to vow non-interference in Delhi. Now, the senior-most man left is VK Malhotra, whose entry could mean other Delhi BJP leaders such as Jagdish Mukhi, Harshvardhan and Vijay Goyal opting for a role at the Centre.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP is well-placed with no serous divisions. Aiding it is the disarray in the Congress whose leaders are preoccupied with settling scores against each other. The Raman Singh government was even praised by the central ministers of the UPA who visited the naxal-affected state.

Problems for the BJP begin in Madhya Pradesh and peak in Rajasthan, with corruption charges a mill around the necks of both chief ministers. In Rajasthan, there is the additional problem of the BJP becoming the party with differences.

In Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Chauhan is the third CM in the five years. Anti-incumbency is a general factor against the party with corruption being the focus. An internal assessment listed about 70 MLAs and 20 ministers as tainted. The party, therefore, intends to  choose new faces to overcome the local anti-incumbency.

There are limits to this, though. Chief minister Chauhan himself is in the dock over allegations that favours were extended to a Rewa-based private group in return for pressing the dumpers owned by the CM’s wife into service at its cement factory.

In Rajasthan, the outstanding feature is division in the BJP, in the RSS, in caste groups and in the Congress as well. Chief minister Vasundhara Raje has been attending meetings of different caste groups in an attempt to win them over. Gujjars are split into three factions, the leaders of the Jat Mahasabha speak in different voices, adivasis and Jains are ranged against each other in south Rajasthan and the Meenas, in conflict with the Gujjars, are also divided among themselves.

Corruption is a major issue, Raje herself being dragged into it by her own partymen and even ministers. Ironically, these ministers continue to be in her cabinet, as do those against whom there are corruption charges.

Infighting has been raging in the party and Raje has seen party workers, with RSS and VHP ranks joining hands, coming on to streets to protest against her. She is “credited” with creating differences in the top leadership with Ashok Singhal and Giriraj Kishore on her side and Pravin Togadia against her.

The flip side is there are state Congress leaders who are supportive of Raje. Among them, Jat leader Mahipal Maderna has openly praised and backed her.

Within the party, she has created her own core group to the chagrin of leaders who used to call the shots earlier. Her hold on the party organisation, however, somewhat slackened after Om Prakash Mathur took over as state president. Now, neither Mathur nor Raje can be said to be in control. The crunch would come at the time of deciding candidates, a lot of whom are likely to be new faces.

s_rajesh@dnaindia.net