Agar Dar Gaya, Samjho Mar Gaya

Memonics

Improbable it may seem, but I believe Australia can be beaten. The big question, of course, is whether India have the nerve to pull this off. My emphasis is deliberately on the psychological aspect because that’s where the Aussies are supreme.

This is not to belie the cricketing ability of Ricky Ponting’s side: no side can win so consistently if the players are not highly talented. Yet, over the past two decades, the Australians have finished off most opponents even before taking the field, such has been their intimidation.

If the Indian players are going to be afraid, they will be out of the series within the first few days of the first Test itself. Anil Kumble’s biggest challenge, therefore, is to convince and inspire his players to believe in themselves.

Courage — and no other — is the password to unlock the exciting flair and tremendous skills that his teammates possess. If that is accomplished, then this Test series could be a rousing one.

(Incidentally, it may seem extraordinary that nobody is plumping for the rookies and talking about dumping the seniors now. But then it is that kind of tour where realism matters I suppose.)

Obviously Australia enjoy certain distinctive advantages. Playing at home is one, having a better pace attack is one more. There is one big disadvantage, however, that could seriously affect their prospects — whatever the aggressive posturing of Ponting and Co — the retirement of Shane Warne and Glen McGrath.

It could be argued that it’s been a while since these two retired and Australia’s triumphant march has not been curtailed. They beat Sri Lanka 2-0 recently, for instance. But the absence of Warne and McGrath was not lost on anybody, and that series was far closer than the scoreline suggests. Had Kumar Sangakarra not been unfit for the first Test, who knows...

India will remember that in 2003 too, Warne and McGrath were not playing and the series was drawn 1-1. India’s batting line-up this time reads more or less the same, perhaps that much more experienced, and also includes the gifted Yuvraj Singh in the form of his life. Replacing two bowlers who have taken more than 1300 Test wickets between them is not easy, and the onus is on India’s batsmen to make the Aussies pay for this loss.

The firepower of Brett lee, Shane Tait, Mitchell Johnson et al is considerable, but if India’s batsmen can withstand their fury, especially in the initial stages, I think it will be ‘match on’. Australia’s gambit — and highly successful, it must be admitted — is to increase the intensity of battle, try and finish the match off as quickly as possible. If they are made to play more than what they think is needed, the Aussies can be impatient, and even lose, as England showed during the 2005 Ashes series.

Strategically, Kumble has to ensure that they engage Australia as long as possible. If the Tests go into the fifth day, India’s prospects will improve and Australia’s diminish. This is easier said than done, but by no means impossible. But the crunch issue, as mentioned at the start, is neither the talent nor the time taken in the middle. It is gumption.

Agar dar haya, samjho mar gaya.