Asia’s strategic triangle

The destiny of Asia will be shaped by the relationship between China, India and Japan, whose strategic footprint will cover the world. The Chinese president visited India last month; India’s prime minister is in Japan this week, and Tokyo has invited China’s top leadership to visit Japan next spring.

The importance of the three Asian giants has increased with the diminished US prestige after the Iraq war. What was meant to demonstrate an awesome military and limitless willpower, turned out to mark the limits of American influence instead. Nevertheless, for all three countries, the bilateral relationship with the US is more important than with either of the other two.

Against the global current of anti-Americanism, India enjoys warm relations with Washington. What used to be a clash between two self-righteous countries convinced of their own rectitude, has been replaced by a deepening friendship between two peoples convinced of their exceptionalism. The civil nuclear cooperation deal approved by the two houses of the US Congress is symptomatic of the changed relationship and testament to American acceptance of India’s responsible nuclear behaviour. Dramatically improving Indo-US relations add another layer of comfort to the growing friendship between India and Japan.

Sino-Indian relations are the most cordial in decades. They are united in opposition to fundamentalist religious movements in Asia. They have been powerful champions in the Doha Round of trade talks, resisting efforts to link international trade to Western labour and environmental standards.

The India-China border dispute has been shelved in the interests of good neighbourly relations. They are competitors for foreign investment, credit and markets. But the four-day visit to India by President Hu Jintao last month was notable for the statement to the world that both China and India are reclaiming their rightful place in the order of things. The two countries set a doubled trade target of $40 billion by 2010.

A combination of geography, demographics, military power and political weight gives India multiple roles in safeguarding sea lanes, dampening Islamic militancy, combating terrorism, and taking the lead in disaster relief operations around the Indian Ocean. Along with China to which it provides a welcome counter-balance in some respects, India’s robust economic expansion has helped to cushion regional economies against global volatility.

India has a resilient democracy; China practises socialism with Chinese characteristics. While China has achieved economic success mainly because of state policies, India has done so, largely despite state policies. At the heart of India’s success is the private entrepreneur, backed by a thriving stock market and disciplined financial sector. This is the area of maximum potential in deepening Indo-Japanese ties.

Historical and linguistic ties to the West, import-substitution policies and protectionism, and political policies of close relations with Moscow kept India at a distance from China and Japan. The end of the Cold War dissipated the interest between Delhi and Moscow, threatened to leave India isolated and spurred it to seek better relations with China.

Japan has had its own share of troubles with China, especially bitter memories of Japanese atrocities during World War II. Many Japanese complain that Beijing keeps the issues alive to mobilise nationalist sentiment to hide the bankruptcy of communist ideology as the glue that held China together, and to extract more financial concessions from Tokyo.

India and Japan have neither the range of difficulties, nor potential for cooperation on the same sets of issues. Some of the problem areas between China and India are potential assets in Indo-Japanese relations--democratic governance, for example. The shared interests in permanent membership of the UN Security Council was converted into a common campaign that came close to fruition last year. Both would add value to the Security Council.

Manmohan Singh visits Japan from December 13-16. Japan, whose economy has been stagnant for over a decade, but whose society remains among the wealthiest in the world, is yet to exploit India’s growth. Both sides hope that Singh’s visit will boost the bilateral relationship.

Ramesh Thakur is senior vice rector of the United Nations University in Tokyo. These are his personal views.