So what kind of prime minister will Rahul Gandhi make? The question is not hypothetical. The process of anointment has begun. Make no mistake about it: the next Congress-led government at the Centre, if it retains office in May 2009, will have Rahul, then 38 years old, in a senior cabinet position. As second-term prime minister, Manmohan Singh, then in his late-70s will gently defer to Rahul on big policy matters while Sonia gracefully assumes the role of empress emeritus.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves. Rahul has to first become a Congress general secretary, which he will do well before 2007. He will have two years to get to know the grassroots Congress cadre and how the party functions nationally as well as get a grip on the intricacies of caste-based Indian politics.
Rahul is a quick learner. His Hindi can be suitably rural when the occasion demands, he is humble, defers to elders and keeps a low profile. In 2009, with at least two years as party general secretary under his belt, and assuming a Congress-led coalition retains office, Rahul is certain to join the cabinet in an appropriately junior capacity. Father Rajiv was literally thrown into the prime ministership at 40 when his mother, Indira Gandhi, was assassinated on October 31, 1984. Rajiv had only three years of political tutelage behind him then.
Rahul's ascension will be far more measured, orderly and crafted. He is unlikely to assume the prime ministership till the middle of the Congress-led government's next term (again assuming it wins the scheduled 2009 election), replacing Manmohan Singh in 2012 when Singh will be past 80 and Rahul himself just over 40.
Of course, many things could go wrong in this script. One, the Left, emboldened by its showing in West Bengal, might increase pressure on the UPA government, even withdrawing support on issues such as privatisation and FDI in retail. Unlikely though.
The Left has a well-developed sense of self-preservation and will continue to bark, not bite. Two, the same UPA alliance may not win the next general election scheduled in May 2009. The Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in February 2007 will be critical and give direction to new central alliances. (Rahul himself will be closely involved in running the Congress campaign in Uttar Pradesh and if he can improve his party's dismal record in his crucial northern state, his political stock will rise). Three, even if a Congress-led coalition wins the next general election in 2009, and with the BJP in disarray that is not unlikely, Rahul will move through the cabinet slowly. Sonia and he might decide to give Singh, despite his age and imperfect health, a full second term.
Rahul would then fight the 2014 general election as a Congress prime ministerial candidate in his own right. He would be 44 and have spent a decade in active Indian politics. By now too, Priyanka, her children grown, would be ready to lend her hand as party general secretary. Is this then how Sonia has mentally divided the roles of her children? Rahul taking on a front political role, Priyanka an administrative party role? In 2014, Sonia herself would be nearly 68, a year younger than when her mother-in-law was assassinated 22 years ago.
The premature death of Pramod Mahajan could play a major role in Sonia's calculations. Along with Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj, Mahajan was the only serious future threat to Rahul in India's personality-driven politics. Both Jaitley and Swaraj will be in their 60s in 2014 and will compare unfavourably with Rahul. India is a young nation led by old people. Rahul and his generation of young Congress leaders could change that as the next decade unfolds.
So, back to the original question: will Rahul make a good prime minister? I believe he will. I am no admirer of the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty and, though I am a biographer of Rajiv Gandhi, I viscerally abhor dynastic politics. But India does not. It embraces, even celebrates, it.
Why do I think Rahul will one day make a good prime minister? This half-Italian, quarter-Parsi, quarter-Kashmiri pandit is modest, bright (but fortunately not too brilliant—always a handicap in most professions), hardworking and shrewd. He knows which buttons to press, who to rely on, the kind of talent to surround himself with. In a young, globalised, forward-looking India, Rahul Gandhi is in the right place at the right time.
| Edited By: Minhaz Merchant |Source: |Updated: Nov 19, 2013, 11:17 PM IST
